Secular Decline of the South African Manufacturing Sector

Nombulelo Gumata is an economist who has co-authored several books in the areas of international finance and macroeconomics, macro-prudential and regulatory tools and financial stability, labour markets, monetary and fiscal policy.Eliphas Ndou is an economist at the South African Reserve Bank and has authored books in international finance, public finances, monetary, labour, macro and microeconomics, time-series econometrics, banking regulation and macro-prudential policy.

• 1. Introduction.- 2. Does trade-openness affect the role of the domestic output-gap on inflation? If so, what is the role of the global out-put gap?.- 3. Does an increase in trade-openness and import-penetration affect income inequality? Evidence from the manufacturing sector output growth and employment growth.- 4. What is the impact of Chinese import penetration on the South African manufacturing sector?.- 5. What is the impact of global trade uncertainty and the exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector?.- 6. How does activity in manufacturing sector respond to trade and exchange rate shocks? Evidence from trade-openness and import penetration thresholds.- 7. What is the impact of imports by stage of production on the manufacturing sector output and employment growth?.- 8. What is the impact of imports by stage of production and the manufacturing sector investment growth?.- 9. What is the impact of global trade uncertainty and the exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector?.- 10. What is the impact of commodity price booms and capital flows surges episodes on the manufacturing sector?.- 11. What are the effects of capital flow shocks on the domestic manufacturing sector?.- 12. Does the persistent widening in the trade deficit explain the decline in the manufacturing sector output and employment growth?.- 13. Do credit booms, financial and credit cycles affect activity in the manufacturing sector?.- 14. What is the role of business and consumer confidence in amplifying the transmission of positive shocks into the manufacturing sector?.- 15. Do positive investment shocks in the manufacturing sector result in increased labour absorption and participation rates?.- 16. Did the decline in the excess capital adequacy ratio amplify the monetary policy easing and credit cycles on activity in the manufacturing sector?.- 17. Did the increase in excess liquid assets of banks amplify the effects of tight macro-prudential tools on activity in the manufacturing sector?.- 18. Did loose loan-to-value and repayment-to-income ratios amplify commodity price booms on activity in the manufacturing sector?.- 19. Do tight loan-to-value and repayment-to-income ratios in amplify the effects of tight monetary policy cycles on the manufacturing sector activity?.- 20. What is the impact of selected financial regulation and macro-prudential tools on credit to the manufacturing sector?.- 21. Did monetary policy cycles propagate the impact of credit and financial cycles on activity in the manufacturing sector during 2005Q1 and 2008Q3?.- 22. What was the role of demand shocks, supply shocks, productivity shocks and monetary policy shocks on the manufacturing sector during 2005Q1 and 2008Q3?.- 23. The role of electricity price shocks on the manufacturing sector output and employment growth.- 24. What is the impact of the manufacturing sector output and sub-sector employment growth on the labour absorption and participation rates?.- 25. What is the nature of the output-employment in the manufacturing sector? Evidence from the manufacturing subsectors.- 26. What are the effects of the minimum wage and productivity growth on the manufacturing sector output and employment growth?.- 27. What is the impact of market income concentration and the mergers and acquisitions channel on the manufacturing sector?.