Capital Flows, Credit Markets and Growth in South Africa

Nombulelo Gumata is an economist who has co-authored several books in the areas of international finance and macroeconomics, macro-prudential and regulatory tools and financial stability, labour markets, monetary and fiscal policy. Eliphas Ndou is an economist at the South African Reserve Bank and has authored books in international finance, public finances, monetary, labour, macro and microeconomics, time-series econometrics, banking regulation and macro-prudential policy.

• 1 Introduction.- Part I Global Economic Growth, Economic Policy Uncertainty and The Influence of Trade Dynamics.- 2 Is BRICS GDP Growth a Source of Shocks or an Amplifier of Global Growth Responses? What Are the Policy Implications for South Africa?.- 3 Does the Trade-Openness Channel Impact the Effects of Business Confidence Shocks on Investment Growth?.- 4 Trade-Openness, Consumer Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks.- 5 Global Growth and Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock Effects on the South African Economy: Do These Reinforce Each Other?.- 6. Heightened Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock Effects on the South African Economy: Transmission via Capital Flows, Credit Conditions and Business Confidence Channels.- Part II Global Policy Rates and The South African Economy.- 7 In Which Direction Is There a Momentum Effect in the Changes in the Spread Between the Repo Rate and Federal Funds Rate?.- 8 How Do Global Real Policy Rates Impact the South African GDP Growth and Labour Market Conditions?.- 9 To What Extent Do Capital Inflows Impact the Response of the South African Economic Growth to Positive SA-US Interest Rate Differential Shocks?.-  Part III Capital Flow Surges, Sudden Stops and Elevated Portfolio Inflows Volatility Effects.-  10 Economic Costs of Capital Flow Episodes in South Africa.- 11 Capital Flow Surges, Sudden Stops and Elevated Portfolio Inflow Volatility Shocks: What is the Nature of Their Interaction with GDP Growth and Credit?.- 12 Bank and Non-bank Capital Flows and The Sectorial Reallocation of Credit Away from the Household Sector.- 13 Banking and Non-banking Capital Flows and The Sectorial Reallocation of Credit Away from Companies.- 14 Equity, Debt Inflows and the Price Stability Mandate.- 15 Do Local Investors Play a Stabilising Role Relative to Foreign Investors After Economic Shocks?.- 16 Do Investors’ Net Purchases and Capital Retrenchment Activities Impact the Monetary Policy Response to Positive Inflation Shocks?.-  Part IV The Transmission of Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Downgrades and Upgrades into the Credit Markets and the Real Economy.-  17 What Role Does Business Confidence Play in Transmitting Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Upgrades and Downgrades Shocks into the Real Economy?.-  18 Are Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Shocks Transmitted Via Economic Growth to Impact Credit Growth?.- 19 Does the Cost of Government Borrowing Transmit Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Downgrades Shocks to Credit Growth?.- Part V The Output–Inflation Trade-off, External Shocks, Labour Market Conditions and Inflation Expectations.-  20 The Output-gap, Nominal Wage and Consumer Price Inflation Volatility Trade-off.- 21 The Output-Gap and Inflation Volatility Trade-off: Do External Shocks and Inflation Expectations Shift the Taylor Curve.-  22 Do Adverse Global Trade Shocks Impact the Trade-off Between the Inflation and Output-Gap Volatilities.- 23 Do the Labour Market Conditions Shocks Impact the Trade-off Between the Inflation and Output-Gap Volatilities?.- Part VI The Policy Ineffectiveness Issues.-  24 The Output Gap–Inflation Trade-off and the Policy Ineffectiveness.- 25 Inflation Regimes and the Transmission of Positive Nominal Demand Shocks to the Price Level