Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence

Bjoern Bartels is a senior consultant and obsolescence management competence lead with a masters degree in international business and a German diploma in industrial engineering and business management. Ulrich Ermel is Head of Department Materials and Obsolescence Management at TQ Systems GmbH and Chairman of the Component Obsolescence Group in Germany.Peter Sandborn, PhD, is Professor of Mechanical Engineering in the CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center at the University of Maryland.Michael G. Pecht, PhD, is Chair Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Director of the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE) at the University of Maryland. He is also a visiting Professor in Electronics Engineering at City University in Hong Kong.

• Preface xiii1 Introduction to Obsolescence Problems 11.1 Definition of Obsolescence 11.2 Categorization of Obsolescence Types 31.3 Definition of Obsolescence Management 41.4 Categorization of Obsolescence Management Approaches 51.5 Historical Perspective on Obsolescence 61.6 Occurrence of Obsolescence 81.7 Product Sectors Affected by Obsolescence Problems 111.8 Parts Affected by Obsolescence Problems 132 Part Change and Discontinuation Management 172.1 The Change Process 182.2 Change-Control Policies of Major Part Manufacturers 182.3 Change-Notification Policies of Major Companies 192.4 Change-Notification 242.5 Change-Notification Paths 272.6 Examples of Common Changes 293 Introduction to Electronic Part Product Life Cycles 333.1 Product Life Cycle Stages 343.2 Special Cases of the Product Life Cycle Curve 393.3 Product Life Cycle Stages as a Basis for Forecasting 404 Obsolescence Forecasting Methodologies 414.1 Obsolescence Forecasting—Parts with Evolutionary Parametric Drivers 424.2 Obsolescence Forecasting—Parts without Evolutionary Parametric Drivers 564.3 Non-Database Obsolescence Forecasting Methodology 705 Case Study Hardware Forecasts and Trends 775.1 Dynamic RAMs (DRAMs) 775.2 Static Random Access Memories (SRAMs) 845.3 Non-Volatile Memories 945.4 Microprocessors 1055.5 Microcontrollers and Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) 1155.6 Logic Parts 1205.7 Analog Parts 1295.8 Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) 1366 Software Obsolescence 1436.1 The Root Causes of Software Obsolescence 1456.2 Software Obsolescence Mechanisms 1466.3 Discussion 1557 Reactive Obsolescence Management 1577.1 Change and Discontinuance Notifications 1587.2 Obsolescence Recovery (Mitigation) Tactics 1607.3 Selecting the Proper Reactive Obsolescence Management Strategy 1867.4 Reactive Obsolescence Management Checklist 1887.5 Reactive Obsolescence Management Guideline 1888 Proactive Obsolescence Management 1938.1 Members of the Proactive Obsolescence Management Board 1948.2 Schedule and Milestones 1948.3 Initial Obsolescence Risk Analysis 1958.4 Tracking Parts’ Availability 1978.5 Product Obsolescence and Aftersales 1979 Strategic Obsolescence Management 1999.1 Applying Project Management Principles to Obsolescence Management 2009.2 Initiation Stage 2029.3 Planning and Design Stage 2059.4 Execution Stage 2109.5 Monitoring and Controlling Stage 2259.6 Strategic Obsolescence Management Guidelines 22910 Obsolescence Management Standards and Organizations 23310.1 Helpful Standards for Obsolescence Management 23310.2 Helpful Organizations for Obsolescence Management 237References 245Index 267