Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond

Inbunden, Engelska, 2024

Av Bruce Garvey, Adam D. M. Svendsen

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In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2024-10-26
Mått155 x 235 x 31 mm
Vikt722 g
FormatInbunden
SpråkEngelska
SerieManagement for Professionals
Antal sidor340
FörlagSpringer International Publishing AG
ISBN9783031661143

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Företagsekonomi inom Ekonomi och ledarskap
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Ledarskap och motivation inom Ekonomi och ledarskap
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Bruce Garvey, MBA, PhD, advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to foresight, creativity and innovation, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties. He has 40 years’ experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. He has published books and papers and made presentations covering the Uncertainty domain.Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, is an established international intelligence and defence strategist, educator (Salamanca and Georgetown), researcher, analyst, adviser and consultant. Multi-sector experienced to a senior level, over the years his research and educator work has been pursued across Europe, Scandinavia, North America and Canada. He has authored several publications, such as numerous articles, chapters, policy & strategy briefs, and four books.

Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis.- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods.- Examining the Landscape of Unauthorised Cyber Access (with reference to POSTnote #684).- Intelligence Engineering-led set-up of generic Strategic Options Analysis Problem to Solution Spaces: Cyber example demonstration.- More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via ‘Estimative/Probabilistic Language’.- Estimative/Probabilistic Language - Part II: Expanding the Range of Scenario Options.- Scoping ‘Digital Twins’ in intelligence & strategic foresight projects.- Generative-AI Pilot for Problem Spaces: Can ChatGPT help develop Scenarios?.- An Outline for an Interrogative/Prompt Library to help improve output quality from Generative-AI Datasets.- Prompt-engineering testing ChatGPT4 & Bard for assessing Generative-AI efficacy to support decision-making.- Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios?.- Realising Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) - Advancing an Intelligence-derived Foresight Framework.- The Role of the Scenario and its Reassessment.- Advancing a New Methodological Process.- Process implications – Current software enhancements, including increasing levels of AI.