Judgment and Decision Making

David Hardman has taught judgment and decision making at London Metropolitan University since 1998, where he is Principal Lecturer for Learning Development. He is co-editor of Thinking: Psychological Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making, and is an Associate Editor for the Journal of Economic Psychology.

• Preface and Acknowledgements 11 Introduction and Overview: Judgments, Decisions, and Rationality 22 The Nature and Analysis of Judgment 83 Judging Probability and Frequency 184 Judgmental Distortions: The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic and Hindsight Bias 325 Assessing Evidence and Evaluating Arguments 406 Covariation, Causation, and Counterfactual Thinking 547 Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty 648 Preference and Choice 789 Confidence and Optimism 9210 Judgment and Choice over Time 10611 Dynamic Decisions and High Stakes: Where Real Life Meets the Laboratory 11812 Risk 13213 Decision Making in Groups and Teams 14614 Cooperation and Coordination 16015 Intuition, Reflective Thinking, and the Brain 174Appendix 188References 189Sources and Credits 209Author Index 211Subject Index 219

"A refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgements." (The Psychologist, January 2009)