Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Anca M. Hanea is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, University of Melbourne, Australia. Her research combines decision (under uncertainty) analysis with structured expert judgement methodologies. Anca’s work focuses on the implementation of uncertainty analysis in decision making.Gabriela F. Nane is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics at the Delft University of Technology in Delft, The Netherlands. Her research interests include risk analysis, uncertainty analysis and Bayesian networks. Her current research primarily focuses on uncertainty quantification and analysis, both data-driven and by employing expert opinions, both from an applied, as well as from a theoretical perspective.Tim Bedford is a Professor of Decision and Risk Analysis at University of Strathclyde, Glasgow. Additionally, he is Associate Principal for Research and Innovation at Strathclyde. His research interests include Structured Expert Judgement and evidence-based decision making, risk acceptance criteria, and decision analysis. He is the co-author with R. Cooke of Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods (Cambridge), and has co-edited five other books.Simon French is a Professor of Statistics in the Applied Statistics and Risk Unit at the University of Warwick, U.K. His research interests include Bayesian statistics, decision making, and risk. He is author or co-author of nine books.

• Chapter 1. Introduction and Overview of Structured Expert Judgement.- Chapter 2. Recent advances in the elicitation of uncertainty distributions from experts for multinomial probabilities.- Chapter 3. Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis.- Chapter 4. Customized Structural Elicitation.- Chapter 5. Bayesian Modelling of Dependence between Experts: some Comparisons with the Cooke Model.- Chapter 6. Three-Point Lifetime Distribution Elicitation for Maintenance Optimization.- Chapter 7. Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structural Expert Judgement Modelling.- Chapter 8. A Number of Things.- Chapter 9. The Classical Model: the Early Years.- Chapter 10. An in-depth perspective on the Classical Model.- Chapter 11. Building on Foundations: an interview with Roger Cooke.- Chapter 12. Scientific advice: a personal perspective in dealing with uncertainty. An interview with Prof Dame Anne Glover.- Chapter 13. Characteristics of a Process for Subjective Probability Elicitation.- Chapter 14. Developing Training Courses for Structured Expert Judgement.- Chapter 15. Expert judgment for geological hazards in New Zealand.- Chapter 16. Using the Classical Model for source attribution of pathogen caused illnesses.- Chapter 17. Reminiscences of a Classical Model expert elicitation facilitator.- Chapter 18. Dealing with imperfect elicitation results.- Chapter 19. Structured Expert Judgement for decisions on medicines policy and management.- Chapter 20. Structured Expert Judgement Issues in a Supply Chain Cyber Risk Management System.- Chapter 21. Structured Expert Judgement in adversarial risk assessment: An application of the Classical Model for assessing geo-political risk in the insurance underwriting industry.- Chapter 22. Expert Judgement in Terrorism Risk Assessment.- Chapter 23. Decision-making in early internationalization: a structured expert judgment approach.