Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. He is Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.George Wright is a Professor at Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde. He is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and anAssociate Editor of both Decision Support Systems and the International Journal of Forecasting.

• Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips viiPreface ixChapter 1 Introduction 1Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 95Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions 437Suggested answers to selected questions 469Index 475