Decision Analysis for Creating the Future

Lawrence D. Phillips is Emeritus Professor in the Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science. In 2005 he received the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for distinguished contributions in Decision Analysis.

• Chapter summaries; Preface; Part I. The Technical Principles: 1. A decision-making framework; 2. The foundations of decision theory; 3. The language of numbers; 4. Values; 5. Trade-off weights; 6. Uncertainty and probability; Part I Epilogue; Part II. The Social Principles: 7. Decision conferences; 8. Behaviour in organisations; 9. Process consultancy; 10. Facilitation skills; 11. Group processes; Part II Epilogue; Part III. Socio-Technical Modelling: 12. Types of decision models; 13. Evaluate options; 14. Allocate resources; 15. Bargain and negotiate; 16. Choose and decide; 17. Managing risk; 18. Revise opinion; 19. Think strategically; Part III. Epilogue.

‘Reading Decision Analysis for Creating the Future is like opening a magic box and discovering the art and science of decision-making. In his simple yet rigorous language, Larry Phillips offers us a fascinating distillation of his vast and diverse experience of applying decision analysis in decision conferencing with small groups. This is not just another book on decision-making. Rather, it is the missing masterpiece on how to construct and exploit analytical models interactively to help decision-makers visualise and discuss alternative paths for a better future in the face of multiple sources of complexity and uncertainty.’ Carlos A. Bana e Costa, University of Lisbon and LSE