Decision Analysis for Creating the Future

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Häftad, Engelska, 2026

AvLawrence D. Phillips

479 kr

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Individuals and groups often find themselves in problematic situations not knowing what to do next. They may experience a sense of unease that things aren't quite right, with no clear path to a better future. This book shows how decision analysis and the social skills of the decision analyst can enable us to explore the future before having to live it. The author is a senior decision analyst sharing his lived experience with many clients in numerous private, public, and voluntary organisations. The book sets out a five-step process to choose, define, and assemble the ten key ingredients of any problem into one model. Changes to the ingredients representing possible futures provide new glimpses into the future, stimulate creativity and lead to new solutions. Readers will gain a sound theoretical foundation with an understanding of process consultancy skills and the types of problems for which decision analysis is appropriate.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2026-05-07
Mått170 x 244 x 23 mm
Vikt718 g
FormatHäftad
SpråkEngelska
Antal sidor418
FörlagCambridge University Press
ISBN9781009622844

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Chapter summaries; Preface; Part I. The Technical Principles: 1. A decision-making framework; 2. The foundations of decision theory; 3. The language of numbers; 4. Values; 5. Trade-off weights; 6. Uncertainty and probability; Part I Epilogue; Part II. The Social Principles: 7. Decision conferences; 8. Behaviour in organisations; 9. Process consultancy; 10. Facilitation skills; 11. Group processes; Part II Epilogue; Part III. Socio-Technical Modelling: 12. Types of decision models; 13. Evaluate options; 14. Allocate resources; 15. Bargain and negotiate; 16. Choose and decide; 17. Managing risk; 18. Revise opinion; 19. Think strategically; Part III. Epilogue.

‘Reading Decision Analysis for Creating the Future is like opening a magic box and discovering the art and science of decision-making. In his simple yet rigorous language, Larry Phillips offers us a fascinating distillation of his vast and diverse experience of applying decision analysis in decision conferencing with small groups. This is not just another book on decision-making. Rather, it is the missing masterpiece on how to construct and exploit analytical models interactively to help decision-makers visualise and discuss alternative paths for a better future in the face of multiple sources of complexity and uncertainty.’ Carlos A. Bana e Costa, University of Lisbon and LSE