Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases

Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning is Deputy Research Director and Deputy Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), Oslo. Stig Stenslie is Research Director and Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), and Professor at Oslo New University College, Oslo.

• List of ContributorsAbbreviationsIntroduction: Warning – The Highest Purpose and Most Challenging Mission of IntelligenceBjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie1. Punggye-ri, 2006 – North Korea’s First Nuclear TestSoo Kim2. London, 2006 – The al-Qaeda Transatlantic Bomb PlotMichael S. Goodman3. Tbilisi, 2008 – Russia Invades GeorgiaDaniela Richterova4. Wall Street, 2008 – The Global Financial CrisisJohn A. Gentry5. In Amenas, 2013 – Terrorists Attack Petroleum InterestsBjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning6. Crimea 2014 – Russia’s Annexation of CrimeaTom Røseth & Tobias Sæther7. Mosul 2014 – The Rise of ISISNikki Ikani8. Palmyra, 2015 – ISIS Attacks Cultural Heritage SitesZeynep Egeli & Lars Haugom9. Paris 2015 – ISIS Attacks ParisPauline Blistène10. Kyiv, 2015 – Russia’s Cyber-Attack on Ukraine’s Power GridAaron Brantly11. Wuhan, 2019 – A Global PandemicDamien van Puyvelde12. Capitol Hill, 2021 – Insurrection in Washington DCStephen Coulthart13. Bergen, 2021 – Russia’s Strategic Acquisition Bid on Bergen Engines ASBjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning14: Kabul, 2021 – The Taliban Overtakes KabulKristian Gustafson15: Kyiv, 2022 – Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of UkraineHuw Dylan16: Sindh, 2022 – Climate Change Floods in PakistanStig StenslieConclusion: Towards Better Warning – Lessons and Recommendations for IntelligenceBjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig StenslieReferencesIndex

This book is an important contribution to the study of intelligence warning. The wide selection of case studies is especially valuable, including not only cases of traditional warning such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also non-traditional warning of threats such as natural disasters, pandemics, and financial crises.