Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method

Häftad, Engelska, 2022

AvMartha Whitesmith,Ministry of Defence) Whitesmith, Martha (Senior Intelligence Analyst

649 kr

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Recent high-profile intelligence failures from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2022-05-30
Mått156 x 234 x 16 mm
Vikt427 g
FormatHäftad
SpråkEngelska
SerieIntelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare
Antal sidor304
FörlagEdinburgh University Press
ISBN9781474466356

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Introduction Part I: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective1. Intelligence and Belief AcquisitionA Taxonomy of IntelligenceHow can Knowledge be Acquired?2. The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive BiasThe Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Method Consistency of Information as an Indicator of TruthDiagnostic Value of Information as an Indicator of TruthSubjective Bayesianism as an Indicator of TruthCredibility of Information as an Indicator of TruthACH and the Mitigation of Cognitive BiasIntelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical PerspectivePart II: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective3. The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis ScenarioProcedure Results Discussion and Conclusions4. Predicting Serial Position EffectsPredicting Serial Position Effects An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects Prediction ModelsThe Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial Position Effects5. Predicting Confirmation BiasAn Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias Prediction Models The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Confirmation Bias Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective 6. Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Recommendations for Future Research and Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis AppendicesReferencesBibliography