Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Martha Whitesmith is Senior Intelligence Analyst at the Ministry of Defence.

• Introduction Part I: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective1. Intelligence and Belief AcquisitionA Taxonomy of IntelligenceHow can Knowledge be Acquired?2. The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive BiasThe Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Method Consistency of Information as an Indicator of TruthDiagnostic Value of Information as an Indicator of TruthSubjective Bayesianism as an Indicator of TruthCredibility of Information as an Indicator of TruthACH and the Mitigation of Cognitive BiasIntelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical PerspectivePart II: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective3. The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis ScenarioProcedure Results Discussion and Conclusions4. Predicting Serial Position EffectsPredicting Serial Position Effects An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects Prediction ModelsThe Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial Position Effects5. Predicting Confirmation BiasAn Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias Prediction Models The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Confirmation Bias Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective 6. Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Recommendations for Future Research and Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis AppendicesReferencesBibliography

Whitesmith (Ministry of Defence, United Kingdom) argues against the key assumption that we have a "fix" for cognitive biases that creep into intel analyses, causing acceptance of findings that confirm erroneous beliefs. […] Summing Up: Recommended.