Del i serien Cornell Studies in Security Affairs

Causes of War

Power and the Roots of Conflict

Inbunden, Engelska, 1999

AvStephen Van Evera

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What causes war? How can military conflicts best be prevented? In this book, Stephen Van Evera frames five conditions that increase the risk of interstate war: false optimism about the likely outcome of a war, a first-strike advantage, fluctuation in the relative power of states, circumstances that allow nations to parlay one conquest into another, and circumstances that make conquest easy.According to Van Evera, all but one of these conditions—false optimism—rarely occur today, but policymakers often erroneously believe in their existence. He argues that these misperceptions are responsible for many modern wars, and explores both World Wars, the Korean War, and the 1967 Mideast War as test cases. Finally, he assesses the possibility of nuclear war by applying all five hypotheses to its potential onset. Van Evera's book demonstrates that ideas from the Realist paradigm can offer strong explanations for international conflict and valuable prescriptions for its control.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum1999-06-24
Mått155 x 235 x 24 mm
Vikt907 g
FormatInbunden
SpråkEngelska
SerieCornell Studies in Security Affairs
Antal sidor288
FörlagCornell University Press
ISBN9780801432019

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1. IntroductionQuestions Addressed, Why They AriseArguments Advanced, Answers OfferedImplications for RealismMethodsPlan of the Book2. False Optimism: Illusions of the Coming WarFalse Hope and WarIllusions of VictoryIllusions of Cheap WarTo Prevent War, Promote Transparency3. Jumping the Gun: First-Move Advantages and Crisis InstabilityFirst-Strike, First-Mobilization, and First-Move AdvantagesHypotheses on the Effects of First-Move AdvantagesTests of Stability TheoryCauses of and Cures for First-Move Advantage4. Power Shifts: Windows of Opportunity and VulnerabilityTypes of WindowsHypotheses on the Effects of WindowsTests of Window TheoryCauses and Cures of Windows5. Cumulative ResourcesWhat Is Cumulativity?Cumulativity and ConflictTypes of CumulativityBeliefs about Cumulativity and Their ImplicationsThe Future of Cumulativity6. Offense, Defense, and the Security DilemmaHypotheses on the Effects of Offense DominanceQualifications: When Offensive Doctrines and Capabilities Cause PeaceCauses of Offense and Defense DominancePredictions and Tests of Offense-Defense TheoryHow Much History Can Offense-Defense Theory Explain?Offense-Defense Theory in Perspective7. Offense-Defense Theory and the Outbreak of World War IThe Rise of the Cult of the Offensive, 1890–1914Predictions of Offense-Defense Theory about Europe, 1890–1914Evidence on Offense-Defense Theory, 1890–1914Offense-Defense Theory and the Test of 1914Explaining World War I8. The Nuclear Revolution and the Causes of WarMAD among Deterrable StatesMAD among Nondeterrable States; MAD among Many StatesAlternatives to MAD: MARNE, BAD, WORSE, and USAThe Janus-Faced RevolutionConclusionAppendix: Hypotheses on Power and the Causes of WarIndex

An important book on the roots of war, remarkable in its theoretical rigor and historical sweep. Van Evera demolishes the view that war is an inevitable outgrowth of an anarchic world that encourages belligerence.(Foreign Affairs) This is a very logical and historically well-informed book, which argues that the realist explanations of war may be missing one of the most important aspects of power: whether the offense is thought to be favored instead of the defense.(Political Science Quarterly) Van Evera's book is a masterful work of positivist social science.... He offers convincing evidence to show that offense-defense theory is a major explanation for the onset of modern wars.(Choice) Van Evera's volume is sure to become a core work in the field of war studies. It deserves to be read by anyone with a serious interest in the causes of war.(Journal of Strategic Studies)