War With Iran

John Allen Gay is assistant editor of The National Interest magazine.Geoffrey Kemp is the Director of Regional Strategic Programs at the Center for the National Interest. He has had a long career in academic and research communities, and was Special Assistant to President Reagan and Senior Director for the Near East and South Asia on the National Security Council staff..

• AcknowledgementsPrologueIntroductionIran’s Nuclear ProgramChapter 1: Positions of Primary ActorsIranKey Opponents to Iran’s Nuclear ProgramThe United StatesDirect RelationsIsraelGlobal OpponentsChapter 2: Choosing to AttackContext for a StrikeSurprise AttackWar EscalatesResponse to Nuclear ProvocationMerits and Risks of a StrikeExpert VoicesPolitical VoicesChapter 3: How an Attack Might WorkTargetingAn Israeli StrikeThe Central Route: Overflying IraqLogistics of an Israeli StrikeAn American StrikeBunker BustingIranian Air DefensesFollow-On StrikesImpact on Iran’s Nuclear ProgramAlternative Means of DestructionSabotageCommando RaidChapter 4: Iran’s RetaliationLebanese HezbollahIsraeli Natural Gas SitesIraq and AfghanistanGeneral TerrorismThe Strait of HormuzInsurgency in the GulfThe Missile ThreatOther Iranian Threats to OilChapter 5: Evolving Crisis, Challenging ExitMass RetaliationNonretaliationMiddle PathsAmerican Response and Cyclical ViolenceChapter 6: Regional OilGulf Oil: Iran’s RoleOil Prices and Iran’s EconomyChapter 7: Oil and WarRecent HistoryImpact of a Military Strike on IranImpact of an Attack on Iranian Oil FacilitiesIran’s Options Against Regional OilAction in the Strait of HormuzAttacking Arab Oil FacilitiesMobilizing the Saudi Shia PopulationUse of Weapons of Mass DestructionIraq and AzerbaijanChapter 8: Preparing for Oil DisruptionsMitigationRerouting Oil FlowsExcess CapacityAssurancePreparationExpanding ReservesPipeline PreparationRemoval of BottlenecksPreparing to Reduce DemandReadying the Refinery Network“Pre-Assuring” InvestorsChapter 9: Economic ConsequencesWider Economic FactorsGrowth Patterns and Oil MarketsOil Price Increases and Supply InterruptionOil Price Increases and Economic RecoveryThreats to the DollarAlternatives to the Dollar?HoweverImpacts in the Middle EastRegional ConflictsAmerican TradeThe Impact of the SanctionsConclusionsChapter 10: Conclusions: The Challenge of Getting Out, the Costs of Staying HomeExit Strategy for War with IranInternal Political ImpactsThe Cost of InactionConclusionsAppendicesBibliography