Uncertainty, Threat, and International Security

Ivan Savic teaches Political Science at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Grenfell Campus. He received his M.Phil. in Political Science (with a minor in Economics) from Columbia University and a B.Com. from the University of Toronto, specializing in commerce and finance, and international relations. He has also taught at the University of Toronto, Brown University, Columbia University, and Hunter College, CUNY. His primary research interest is in international finance, specifically financial governance, the relationship between political and financial policy, and the politics of international crisis response. He is also interested in the interplay of economic and security issues such as the nature of economic interdependence under globalization and its impact on conflict.Zachary C. Shirkey is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Hunter College, CUNY. He received his PhD from Columbia. His research on military intervention, war duration, and alignment choices has been published in the Journal of Peace Research, the International Studies Review, and the Journal of Theoretical Politics. His two previous books, Is This a Private Fight or Can Anybody Join? and Joining the Fray, examine the causes and timing of military intervention in interstate and civil wars respectively

• Introduction—Threats and the Challenges of UncertaintyChapter 1—Balancing as a Commitment ProblemChapter 2—Balancing and Buck-Passing: A Dynamic Model with UncertaintyChapter 3—Balancing and Buck-Passing: Western Europe in the 1930sChapter 4—To Bandwagon or Hide: A Theoretical Examination of the Alternatives to BalancingChapter 5—To Bandwagon or Hide: East Central Europe before World War TwoChapter 6—Balancing and Bandwagoning by Other Means: How the Outbreak of War Affects States’ Responses to ThreatsChapter 7—The Rise of China: Will States Balance, Bandwagon, or Hedge in the South China Sea Today? Conclusion

"Ivan Savic and Zachary Shirkey have written a masterful book. By combining rigorous, game theoretic reasoning with nuanced case studies they have created a new and superior understanding of different facets of uncertainty. And then, in clear prose they tease out fundamental policy implications for global politics and US foreign policy. Every international relations student should read this book." - Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Julius Silver Professor of Politics, NYU and co-author of The Dictator's Handbook and Spoils of War.