Uncertainty Deconstructed

Bruce Garvey advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to technological foresight, creativity and innovation, futures, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties, based on his research at  Imperial College London, (UK). He has 40 years’ experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. Dowshan Humzah is an independent director and strategic advisor. He has delivered transformative business growth, industry firsts and digital innovation, having held executive roles with RSA Insurance, Virgin Media, Orange, P&G and four start-ups. As a non-executive, he focuses on board composition and cognitive diversity. His directorships include Board Apprentice Global, Gresham College and Overcoming MS.Storm Le Roux is principal of SCNiiC. He led the Aerospace and Climate Neutrality Initiative,resulting in the launch in 2018 of SCNiiC – Sustainability Climate Neutrality Impact Investment Consultancy – a specialist advisor on net zero finance, technology and decision-making under deep uncertainty. He graduated in science and engineering from the University of Stellenbosch.

• Part I: Introducing the Programme and its Contents.- 1. Setting the Scene and Introduction.- Part II: Theoretical Underpinnings: Structural Components Of Uncertainty.- 2. Locating Uncertainty along the Risk Spectrum.- 3. Problem Status.- 4. Time-Based Criteria.- 5. The Evidence Base.- 6. Ways of Seeing the Future. Part III: Theoretical Underpinnings: Scenarios and their Role in Dealing With Uncertainty.- 7. Scenarios - What Are They, Why Are They Useful and How Can We Best Use Them?.- 8. Scenario Derivatives First, Second and Third Order Scenarios:  Generic (Landscape) Variables.- Part IV: Theoretical Underpinnings: Behaviour – The Hidden Influencer In How We Deal With Uncertainty.- 9. Behavioural Factors: Cognitive Biases and Dissonance, Anomie, and Alienation (Or How We Humans Mess Things Up).- 10. How to Mitigate the Impact of the Behavioural Minefield.- Part V: Theory into Practice – Reactive and Exploatory Scenarios and Case Studies.- 11. Reactive – the Covid-19 Pandemic.- 12. An Exploratory Scenario Case Study – Social Mobility and Inequality.- 13. Achieving Net Zero – The Small Island Developing States (SIDs) Initiative: An Exploratory Investment Decision Support Framework to Help Address Uncertainty.- 14. Concluding Comments.