Uncertainty and Risk

Gabriele Bammer is a Professor at the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at The Australian National University and a Research Fellow at the Hauser Center for Nonprofit Organizations at Harvard University. Michael Smithson is a Professor at the School of Psychology at The Australian National University.

• Preface * Part I: Setting the Scene * Introduction * The Many Faces and Masks of Uncertainty * Adopting Orphans: Uncertainty and Other Neglected Aspects of Complex Problems * Part II: More than a Cabinet of Curiosities: Disciplinary and Practice Perspectives on Uncertainty * When Action Can t Wait: Investigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks * Uncertainty and Religion: Ten Provisional Theses * Uncertainty in the Physical Sciences: How Big? How Small? Is It Actually There At All? * Statistics: An Essential Tool for Model Citizens * A Philosopher‘s Guide to Probability * Musical Improvisation, Creativity and Uncertainty * Uncertainty as a Creative Force in Visual Art * Historians and Disputes over Uncertainty * Approaches to Uncertain Futures * Embracing Social Uncertainties with Complex Systems Science * Heroin: Injected with Uncertainty * Political Practice: Uncertainty, Ethics and Outcomes * Smoke and Mirrors: Managing Uncertainty in the Public Health Sector * Economists and Uncertainty * Psychology‘s Ambivalent View of Uncertainty * Uncertainty in Decision-making: Intelligence as a Solution * Emergency Management Thrives on Uncertainty * Uncertainty, Complexity and the Environment * Uncertainty, Terrorism and Law Enforcement * Certainty as Illusion: The Nature and Purpose of Uncertainty in the Law * Part III: Unifying Diversity * The Nature of Uncertainty * Uncertainty Metaphors, Motives and Morals * Coping and Managing under Uncertainty * Part IV: Implications for Risk Assessment and Management * Coping with Deep Uncertainty: Challenges for Environmental Assessment and Decision-making * Risk, Uncertainty and Social Controversy: From Risk Perception and Communication to Public Engagement * Index

'The book takes [a] broad view, looking at uncertainty in religion, philosophy, visual art, and musical improvisation, as well as more often-explored fields.' Natural Hazards Observer'[t]he most comprehensive book that I have seen in this field to date, both in terms of the sheer breadth and depth of the various chapters, and the diverse backgrounds and experience of the authors. This book definitely broadens the scope of how one looks at and perceives the issues of uncertainty and risk after reading it ... fresh perspectives that would not ordinarily be seen are uncovered for the reader.' Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management'This book provides the widest coverage of the subject of uncertainty hitherto known in the literature...it is an excellent reatise on the subject and the reviewer would recommend to one and all' Krishna B. Misra, International Journal of Performability Engineering