UK Business and Financial Cycles Since 1660

Nicholas Dimsdale is an Emeritus Fellow in Economics at Queen’s College Oxford and an Associate Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford.  For many years he taught macroeconomics and monetary economics at both undergraduate and postgraduate level. He has been on the Board of Oxford Economic Papers for many years and has served as a Managing Editor. His main research interests have been in macroeconomic history with a particular interest in the interwar period. He has also written on the pre-1914 period and the postwar economy. He has contributed to the literature in this area in leading journals. Ryland Thomas is a Senior Technical Advisor in the Monetary Policy Outlook Division of the Bank of England. He has worked at the Bank of England for twenty five years and has covered a number of research and conjunctural roles.  More recently he has developed a long-run macroeconomic and financial database for the UK, in order to analyse the historical experience of the UK economy during recessions and to examine the role of money and credit in driving the business cycle.

• 1. Introduction.- 2. Business, Monetary and Credit Cycles in Theory.- 3. Statistical and Econometric Analysis of the Cycle.- 4. GDP data for Analysing Business Cycles.- 5. Metrics and Turning Points of Cycles 1660-2018.- 6. A Narrative History of UK Business Cycles.- 7. Conclusions.