Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean

Emile Hokayem is Director of Regional Security and Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He specialises in regional politics, security and conflict analysis in the Middle East, including the national security and defence policies of the Middle Eastern states, the role of armed non-state actors, and the interests and involvement of external actors in the Middle East. Prior to joining IISS, Emile was the political editor and international affairs columnist of The National newspaper in Abu Dhabi, and from 2004 to 2008 was the research fellow for the Middle East at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC. Emile is the author of Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant (IISS Adelphi Series 2013), and the editor of the IISS Strategic Dossier Iran’s Networks of Influence in the Middle East (2019).

• FLAG GLOSSARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY · THEMES o CHAPTER ONE|GEOPOLITICS: FRAGMENTATION, COMPETITION AND THE PERSISTENCE OF CONFLICT o CHAPTER TWO|MARITIME DISPUTES: THE COMPLEX INTERSECTION OF HISTORY, LAW AND GEOPOLITICS o CHAPTER THREE|ENERGY IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN: POTENTIAL MEETS GEOPOLITICS o CHAPTER FOUR|ARMED FORCES: DEFENCE POLICY, CAPABILITY, COOPERATION AND MODERNISATION · REGIONAL ACTORS o CHAPTER FIVE|TURKIYE: ERDOĞAN’S STATECRAFT, REGIONAL AMBITIONS AND STRUCTURAL LIMITATIONS o CHAPTER SIX|TURKISH COERCIVE DIPLOMACY: SYRIA AND LIBYA AS LABORATORIES o CHAPTER SEVEN|GREECE: REGIONAL COOPERATION AS GRAND STRATEGY o CHAPTER EIGHT|CYPRUS: PROTRACTED DIVISION, INCREASED STRATEGIC DEPTH AND AN ISRAELI GAMBLE o CHAPTER NINE|LIBYA: INTERNAL DIVISIONS, FOREIGN INTERVENTION AND OIL o CHAPTER TEN|EGYPT: REGIONAL AMBITIONS AND DOMESTIC WEAKNESS o CHAPTER ELEVEN|ISRAEL: BETWEEN THE AMBITION OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND THE REALITY OF CONFLICT o CHAPTER TWELVE|LEBANON: ENDURING POLYCRISIS AND ON THE BRINK OF WAR o CHAPTER THIRTEEN|SYRIA: A BROKEN STATE AND AN ARENA FOR COMPETITION · GLOBAL ACTORS o CHAPTER FOURTEEN|UNITED STATES: BETWEEN RETRENCHMENT AND ENTANGLEMENT o CHAPTER FIFTEEN|FRANCE: HIGH AMBITIONS, REDUCED INFLUENCE o CHAPTER SIXTEEN|THE SOUTHERN FLANK: A CHALLENGE FOR NATO AND THE EU o CHAPTER SEVENTEEN|THE GULF STATES IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN: FROM GEOPOLITICS TO GEO-ECONOMICS o CHAPTER EIGHTEEN|RUSSIA: MAXIMISING THE POLITICAL RETURNS OF ITS INTERVENTIONS o CHAPTER NINETEEN|CHINA IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN: SMALL BUT GROWING PRESENCE