Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting

Haiyan Song, Stephen F. Wittpson

• Preface. Introduction to Tourism Demand Analysis. Introduction. Determinants of tourism demand. Functional form and demand elasticities. Summary. Traditional Methodology of Tourism Demand Modelling. Introduction. Traditional methodology of tourism demand modelling. Failure of the traditional approach to tourism demand modelling. General-to-Specific Modelling. Introduction. General-to-specific modelling. Tests of restrictions on regression parameters. Diagnostic checking. Model selection. Worked example. Cointegration. Spurious regression. The concept of cointegration. Test for order of integration. Test for Cointegration. Error Correction Model. Cointegration and error correction mechanism. Estimating the ECM. Worked example. Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Cointegration. Introduction. Basics of VAR analysis. Impulse response analysis. Forecasting with VAR and error variance decomposition. Testing for Granger causality and exogeneity. An example of VAR modelling. VAR modelling and cointegration. Time Varying Parameter Modelling. Introduction. Are tourism demand elasticities constant over time? The TVP model and Kalman filter. A worked example. Summary and conclusions. Panel Data Analysis. Introduction. Model specification and estimation. An empirical study of a tourism demand model based on the panel data approach. Summary and conclusions. Evaluation of Forecasting Performance. Introduction. Measures of forecasting accuracy. Forecasting evaluation of different models. Concluding remarks. References. Author index. Subject index.

Kevin K.F. Wong Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches makes a welcome and timely contribution in updating the existing methodology on tourism demand modelling and forecasting. It serves as a useful reference for research students and academics in tourism as well as industry practitioners in the field who are interested in applying modern econometric techniques to the analysis of tourism demand. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research Lindsay Turner This book is a very timely description and application of advanced causal forecasting methods for tourism data series...Overall, this book is very important in raising the level of technical expertise required to achieve accurate causal model forecasts, and explaining which this is necessary. As a text, the book pushed the understanding of tourism forecasting methodology out to currently accepted econometric standards, and must become a standard research reference work for economic forecasting of tourism series. Tourism Management Andreas Papatheodorou, University of Surrey, UK ...provides a very comprehensive and concise analysis of major econometric issues in the context of tourism demand...it is of great value to advanced students, academic researcher and practitioners who focus explicitly on quantitative methodologies in Information Technology and Tourism. Information Technology in Tourism Journal, Vol 4, Nos 3-4