The Geriatric Peace

Nyhet

Population Aging and the Decline of War

Inbunden, Engelska, 2025

Av Mark L. Haas, Duquesne University) Haas, Mark L. (Duquesne Professor of Political Science, Duquesne Professor of Political Science, Mark L Haas

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The vast majority of the world's countries are experiencing a demographic revolution: dramatic, sustained, and likely irreversible population aging. States' median ages are steadily increasing as the number of people ages 65 and older skyrockets. Analysts and policymakers frequently decry population aging's domestic costs, especially likely slowing economic growth and massive new public expenditures for elderly welfare. But aging has a major yet largely unrecognised international benefit: it significantly reduces the likelihood of international war. Although wars continue to rage in parts of the world, almost none involve aged countries. This book provides a comprehensive and groundbreaking argument why population aging will be a powerful force for peace.Aging will significantly reduce states' military capabilities available for war while also boosting leaders’ and citizens' preferences for peaceful foreign policies. At the same time, the effects of aging will help prevent the emergence of a power transition between the United States and China, which would be a development that is particularly likely to devolve into armed hostilities. If an aged country does initiate war, the effects of aging will create major barriers to military success. The more aging reduces the probability of victory, the greater the disincentives to aggressing. Detailed case studies show how aging has affected the capabilities and preferences in Japan, China, the United States, and Russia.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2025-09-17
Mått156 x 234 x 23 mm
Vikt658 g
FormatInbunden
SpråkEngelska
Antal sidor360
FörlagOUP USA
ISBN9780197511732

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Politik och statsskick inom Samhalle och politik

Mark L. Haas is the Duquesne Professor of Political Science at Duquesne University in Pittsburgh. He formerly was a National Security Fellow at the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies and an International Security Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, both at Harvard University. Haas received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Virginia and his B.A. in political science, economics, and history from Duke University.

DedicationAcknowledgementsList of Figures and TablesChapter 1. Population Aging: Inevitable, and a Force for PeaceChapter 2. Population Aging and Reduced Capabilities for WarChapter 3. Population Aging and Reduced Preferences for WarChapter 4. Population Aging and Underbalancing in JapanChapter 5. Population Aging, the Decline of China's Power, and Preferences for PeaceChapter 6. Population Aging in the United States: International Dominance and Domestic PolarizationChapter 7. Population Aging in Russia: Old, Aggressive, and Power HandicappedChapter 8. Conclusion

At a time of much hand-wringing over low fertility and population aging, Mark L. Haas makes a brilliant argument for a golden lining, showing in persuasive detail how these trends will make war less feasible and less desirable for all the great powers. Combining insights from economics, demography, and international relations, Haas shows how Russia, China, Japan and the U.S. will face increasing obstacles to successful war-making, while U.S. hegemony is likely to endure. A fascinating and provocative work.