Spatial Impacts of Climate Change

Denis Mercier is Professor of Geography at Sorbonne University and a member of the Laboratory of Physical Geography: Quaternary and Current Environments. His research focuses on the impacts of climate change on the polar environment and the risks of flooding and sea submergence.

• Introduction xiiiDenis MERCIERChapter 1. Climate Change at Different Temporal and Spatial Scales 1Denis MERCIER1.1. Contemporary global climate change 11.2. Contemporary Arctic-wide climate change 61.3. Future global climate change 91.4. Future Arctic-wide climate change 111.5. The causes of climate change 131.5.1. Solar radiation 131.5.2. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions 141.5.3. Volcanism 161.5.4. Albedo and the radiation balance 171.6. Conclusion 191.7. References 19Chapter 2. Climate Change and the Melting Cryosphere 21Denis MERCIER2.1. Introduction 212.2. The sensitivity of the cryosphere to climate change 222.3. Melting of the marine cryosphere 242.3.1. The melting of the Arctic sea ice 242.3.2. Antarctic sea ice 272.4. Melting of the Earth’s cryosphere 282.4.1. Melting ice sheets 282.4.2. The melting of mountain glaciers 322.4.3. Decreasing permafrost 352.4.4. Melting snow 352.5. Consequences of the melting cryosphere 362.5.1. On a global scale: rising sea levels 362.5.2. Regionally: paraglacial risks 382.6. Conclusion 402.7. References 40Chapter 3. Between Warming and Globalization: Rethinking the Arctic at the Heart of a Stakes System 43Éric CANOBBIO3.1. Spatial impacts of climate change in the Arctic 433.1.1. Clarifying the terms of the subject in their polar contexts 443.2. The manufacture of polar issues, between global warming and globalization 523.2.1. Warming and space production, a decade of confusion off the Arctic coasts 533.2.2. Three interacting contexts 573.3. The production of polar doctrines: rhetoric and frameworks for action 593.3.1. Factors of convergence and consensus 603.3.2. Differentiation factors 613.3.3. The strategic dimensions of Arctic policies, the complex issue of polar militarization 623.4. Geography of a new system of stakeholder relations in the Arctic 653.5. Conclusion: polar metamorphisms 673.6. References 68Chapter 4. Coastlines with Increased Vulnerability to Sea-level Rise 71Axel CREACH4.1. Introduction 714.2. Coastlines under the influence of sea-level rise 724.2.1. The pressures of climate change on coastlines 724.2.2. Consequences of sea-level rise on coastlines 764.3. Increasingly attractive coastlines for societies 784.3.1. The coastalization process 784.3.2. A densification of activities on the coastlines 794.3.3. A closer approach to the sea 814.4. Towards the necessary adaptation of coastal areas 834.4.1. The coastline, an area at risk 834.4.2. Possible coping strategies 844.4.3. The example of the Netherlands 864.5. Which coastline for tomorrow? 874.6. References 89Chapter 5. The Consequences of Climate Change on the Paraglacial Sedimentary Cascade 93Denis MERCIER and Étienne COSSART5.1. The paraglacial sedimentary cascade: elements of definition 935.1.1. General principles of the concept of a paraglacial sedimentary cascade 935.1.2. Paraglacial spatial boundaries 985.1.3. The temporal limits of the paraglacial sedimentary cascade 995.2. Sediment inputs to the paraglacial sedimentary cascade 1025.2.1. Landslides 1025.2.2. Remobilization of slope deposits 1055.3. Sediment fluxes within the paraglacial sedimentary cascade 1085.3.1. The evolution of ice margins on a decadal scale 1085.3.2. Paraglacial fluvial metamorphoses on a secular scale 1095.4. Sedimentary stocks or the end of the paraglacial sedimentary cascade 1105.4.1. Temporary storage areas on a secular scale 1105.4.2. Interglacial-scale temporary storage areas 1125.4.3. Final storage areas 1155.5. Conclusion 1155.6. References 116Chapter 6. Spatial Impacts of Climate Change on Periglacial Environments 119Denis MERCIER and Étienne COSSART6.1. Introduction 1196.1.1. Definition of periglacial 1206.1.2. Present and past spatial extent of periglacial environments 1216.2. Melting permafrost and paraperiglacial geomorphological crises 1256.2.1. Definition of paraperiglacial 1256.2.2. Paraperiglacial processes and forms 1276.3. Periglacial coastal environments in high latitudes in the face of climate change 1296.4. Periglacial environments at high altitudes in the face of climate change 1316.4.1. Gravity dynamics and permafrost wall degradation 1326.4.2. Gravity dynamics and permafrost degradation in loose formations 1346.4.3. The impact of global warming on high-mountain practices 1366.5. Conclusion 1376.6. References 138Chapter 7. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Dynamics of High Latitude Periglacial Environments 143Emmanuèle GAUTIER7.1. Periglacial regions strongly affected by recent climate change 1437.1.1. Much warmer winters 1437.1.2. Permafrost and its sensitivity to air temperatures 1447.2. The influence of permafrost on hydrological functioning 1467.2.1. Numerous wetlands in periglacial environments 1477.2.2. The knock-on effects of climate change on slope hydrology 1487.3. The response of Arctic fluvial hydrosystems to ongoing climate change 1507.3.1. River ice 1537.3.2. Increasing winter low water levels 1557.3.3. Spring flooding and breakup 1577.3.4. The rapid evolution of water discharge 1597.4. Conclusion 1637.5. References 163Chapter 8. The Impacts of Climate Change on Watercourses in Temperate Environments 167Gilles DROGUE8.1. What is at stake? 1678.1.1. Spatial dynamics of climate zoning and river regimes 1678.1.2. Watercourses: resource, vector and living environment 1698.1.3. The (dis)equilibrium between precipitation, evapotranspiration and flow in temperate environments 1718.1.4. The study of past climate impacts 1738.1.5. The study of future climate impacts 1738.1.6. Summary 1748.2. Hydrological changes already “observable” 1768.2.1. The case of metropolitan France 1768.2.2. Continental trends: Western Europe 1798.3. Hydrological projections 1808.3.1. For French rivers 1808.3.2. For continental Europe 1818.4. Conclusion 1848.5. References 184Chapter 9. Spatial Impacts of Melting Central Asian Glaciers: towards a “Water War”? 187Alain CARIOU9.1. Societies and economies dependent on the cryosphere 1879.1.1. The possibility of water scarcity and “water war”? 1879.1.2. “Water tower” mountains for arid depressions 1889.1.3. Tensions between riparian and rival states 1949.2. The impact of climate change on water resources 1989.2.1. Recession of the cryosphere 1989.2.2. The consequences of cryosphere retreat on hydrology 2009.2.3. Human societies facing the challenge of climate change 2029.3. Conclusion 2059.4. References 206Chapter 10. Spatial Impact of Climate Change on Winter Droughts in the Mediterranean and Consequences on Agriculture 209Florian RAYMOND and Albin ULLMANN10.1. Climate variability and change in the Mediterranean basin 20910.2. Droughts during rainy seasons 21110.2.1. Rainfall drought: the absence of rain in time and space 21110.2.2. Detection of very long dry events in the Mediterranean Sea 21210.2.3. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the main event patterns of very long dry spells 21310.3. Rainfall droughts in the Mediterranean: impacts on Spanish agrosystems 21610.4. Rainfall droughts in the Mediterranean: projections for the future 21810.5. Conclusion 22110.6. References 222Chapter 11. The Spatial Impacts of Climate Change on Viticulture Around the World 225Hervé QUÉNOL and Renan LE ROUX11.1. Introduction 22511.2. Recent climatic trends in the world’s wine-growing regions 22611.3. Climate zoning in viticulture 22711.4. Impact of climate change: anticipating changes in the spatial distribution of vines 23011.4.1. Towards climate change modeling in wine-growing regions 23111.4.2. The need to take into account local factors 23611.5. Conclusion 23811.6. References 239Chapter 12. Climate Change in the Amazon: A Multi-scalar Approach 243Vincent DUBREUIL, Damien ARVOR, Beatriz FUNATSU, Vincent NÉDÉLEC and Neli DE MELLO-THÉRY12.1. Introduction 24312.2. The Amazonian climate system 24412.2.1. Heat, humidity and regional diversity 24412.2.2. Radiation balance and general circulation 24712.2.3. The forest-climate interaction issue 24812.3. A changing system: deforestation, warming and drying? 25012.3.1. Pioneering dynamics: rise and (provisory?) decline 25012.3.2. Increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall 25212.3.3. The dynamics of the start and end dates of the rainy season 25212.3.4. Local effects of land-use changes 25412.4. Uncertainties of future changes, perceptions and adaptations 25712.4.1. Savanization and tipping points 25712.4.2. An overall impact which is certain, but which remains to be specified 25812.4.3. Perceptions and adaptations by local populations 25912.5. Conclusion: a stake in the global negotiations 26112.6. References 263Chapter 13. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Biomes 267Delphine GRAMOND13.1. Biomes, a representation of life on a global scale 26813.1.1. The biome, an indicator of climatic context: what are the realities? 26913.1.2. From the roots of a globalizing concept to the emergence of an operational scale 27013.2. Structural and functional impacts of climate change on terrestrial biomes 27413.2.1. From bioclimatic bathing to modification of ecological processes 27413.2.2. Identifying changes: from global diagnosis to biological responses 27513.3. Spatializing change: biome modeling 27913.3.1. Observed and projected global impacts 27913.3.2. Observed and projected impacts for the Arctic region 28213.4. Conclusion 28413.5. References 286Chapter 14. Spatial Impacts of Climate Change on Birds 289Laurent GODET14.1. Introduction 28914.2. Contemporary distributional changes 29114.2.1. Latitudinal shifts 29214.2.2. Altitudinal shifts 29314.2.3. Spatial manifestations of range changes 29514.3. Different responses for different species 29714.3.1. Dispersion capabilities 29714.3.2. Reproductive capacity 29814.3.3. Generalist nature 29914.4. Conservation implications 29914.4.1. Ecological consequences 29914.4.2. Conservation measures 30014.5. Conclusion 30214.6. References 303List of Authors 311Index 313