Simulation and Wargaming

Charles Turnitsa, PhD, is the head of the Computer Engineering program for Regent University. He has been a wargamer for over 40 years, and continues to do professional research in areas such as wargaming, data interoperability, and modeling and simulation.Curtis Blais, PhD, is a member of the research faculty in the Naval Postgraduate School’s Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation (MOVES) Institute. He has over 47 years of experience in modeling and simulation development, application, and education, and actively contributes to development of international standards in modeling and simulation. Andreas Tolk, PhD, is Chief Scientist for Complex Systems Modeling at the MITRE Corporation, His contributions have been recognized by the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) as well as the Society for Modeling and Simulation (SCS) with distinguished contribution awards. He is a senior member of IEEE and ACM and a Fellow of SCS.

• Foreword xvPreface xxiiiList of Contributors xxvAuthor Biography xxixPrologue xliPart I Introduction 11 An Introduction to Wargaming and Modeling and Simulation 3Jeffrey ApplegetIntroduction 3Terminology 3An Abbreviated History of Wargames and Simulations 5Wargames and Computer-Based Combat Simulations: From the Cold War to Today 6Wargames Today 10Simulations Today 13Introduction 13Simulation Types 13Aggregate Simulations 13Entity Simulations 14Simulations and Prediction 14Standard Assumptions 14Data 15Simulating the Reality of Combat 16The Capability and Capacity of Modern Computing to Represent Combat 16Finite Size 17Number of Pieces/Entities 17Terrain 18Rules 18Movement 18Attack 19Adjudication 19Victory Conditions 19Summary 20CampaignAnalysis 20Conclusion 21Part II Historical Context 232 A School for War – A Brief History of the Prussian Kriegsspiel 25Jorit WintjesIntroduction 25Kriegsspiel Prehistory 29A School for War – the Prussian Kriegsspiel 36The Prussian Kriegsspiel 1824/28 – 1862 42The Golden Age – 1862 to c. 1875 46The Changing Kriegsspiel – c. 1875 to 1914 50Kriegsspiel Beyond Borders – 1871 to 1914 54Conclusion 593 Using Combat Models for Wargaming 65Joseph M. SaurThe Nature of Combat Models 67Europe’s Plan to Simulate the Entire Planet 77China Exclusive: China’s “Magic Cube” Computer Unlocks the Future 77A Model to Predict War 78Afghanistan Stability/COIN Dynamics – Security 79The Nature of Wargames 81The Players – Who Might Be Involved? 85The CRT – How Do We Adjudicate Political, Economic, Information and Other Non-Kinetic Actions? How DO WE ADJUDICATE KINETIC INTERACTIONS (Which, in This Case, We Hope Do Not Occur!)? 86Organizational Behaviors 88Issue in Wargames (and Combat Models) 89Yyyyn 90Part III Wargaming and Operations Research 914 An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis 93Paul K. DavisBackground and Structure 93Relationships, Definitions, and Distinctions 94Different Purposes for Wargaming 94Backdrop 94A Common Critique of M&S 94Humans and M&S 98Distinctions 98A Model-Game-Model Paradigm 100The Core Idea 100Can Human Gaming Truly Serve as “Testing”? 101Case Study: Deterrence and Stability on the Korean Peninsula 103Background 103Model Building 104Ideal Methods and Practical Expedients 104Modernizing the Escalation Ladder 106Cognitive Decision Models 108Top-Level Structure 109Lower Level Structure 109Designing and Executing a Human Game 111Reflections and Conclusions 114Implications for Simulation 1175 Wargaming, Automation, and Military Experimentation to Quantitatively and Qualitatively Inform Decision-Making 123Jan Hodicky and Alejandro HernandezIntroduction 123Military Methods to Knowledge Discovery 124Technology: Knowledge Enablers 126Wargaming Automation Challenges in M&S Perspective 128Wargaming Relation to M&S 128Wargaming Elements 129Constructive Simulation Building Blocks 131Wargaming Elements Not Supported by Constructive Simulation 131Challenges to Combined Methodologies for Knowledge Discovery 132Constructive Simulation Constrains in the Context of Automation and Wargaming 133Stage- Wise Experimentation in CAW 139A Progression of Mixed Methods to Grand Innovation 139A Complete Application of ACAW and SWE for Future Capability Insights 144Computer- Assisted Wargaming Classification 148Conclusion 1516 Simulation and Artificial Intelligence Methods for Wargames: Case Study – “European Thread” 157Andrzej Najgebauer, Sławomir Wojciechowski, Ryszard Antkiewicz, and Dariusz PierzchałaIntroduction 157Assumptions and Research Tools 159Modeling of Complex Activities 161Network Model of Complex Activities 161The MCA Software Package for Wargaming 166Wargame – Course of Action Evaluation 169Assumptions 169Situation 170Model of Operation 173A Collection of Values of the Function h(g) 173Deterrence Phase 175Parameters Value – Deterrence Phase 175COA Evaluation 179Summary 1807 Combining Wargaming and Simulation Analysis 183Mark SissonIntroduction 183Current Efforts Underway 184Methodology 185Frameworks or Schemas to Support Portfolios 186Comparability 188Emergence 190Triangulation 190Exercises 191Artificial Intelligence 192Wargames 193Computer Simulation Models 194Mathematical Models 195Experimentation 196Building Portfolios 196Conclusion 1998 The Use of M&S and Wargaming to Address Wicked Problems 203Phillip PournelleWhy Are We Doing This? 205Framing the Problem 207M&S Support to Wargames 212Pathologies and How to Avoid Them 213Combining Wargaming and M&S 219Part IV Wargaming and Concept Developing and Testing 2239 Simulation Support to Wargaming for Tactical Operations Planning 225Karsten Brathen, Rikke Amilde Seehuus, and Ole Martin MevassvikIntroduction 225Operational Planning and Wargaming 226What are the Benefits of Simulation Support to COA Wargaming? 231Principles of Technology Support to Wargaming for Operations Planning 232Enabling Technologies 234Models 235System Implementation 237SWAP 238SWAP Experiment 241Conclusion and Way Forward 24310 Simulation-Based Cyber Wargaming 249Ambrose KamMotivation and Overview 249Introduction 250Cyber Simulation 253Mission Analysis Tool 258Wargames 261Commercial Wargames 265Future Work 267Summary 26911 Using Computer-Generated Virtual Realities, Operations Research, and Board Games for Conflict Simulations 273Armin Fügenschuh, Sönke Marahrens, Leonie Marguerite Johannsmann, Sandra Matuszewski, Daniel Müllenstedt, and Johannes SchmidtIntroduction 273Public Software (C:MA/NO) 275User- Tailored Software (VBS3) 277Artificial Intelligence for Solving Tactical Planning Problems 278Wargaming Support 282Conclusion 285Part V Emerging Technologies 28912 Virtual Worlds and the Cycle of Research: Enhancing Information Flow Between Simulationists and Wargamers 291Paul Vebber and Steven AguiarThe Cycle of Research as a Communications Framework 293Bridging the Wargaming – Simulation Gap 297Virtual World Beginnings 299Elgin Marbles – An Analytic Game 301Analytical vs. Narrative Games 303Virtual Worlds as a Virtual Reality 307Operational Wargames 308Distributed LVC Wargames 312The Future 31513 Visualization Support to Strategic Decision-Making 317Richard J. Haberlin and Ernest H. PageIntroduction 317Impact/Capabilities 318Strategic Planning 318Acquisitions 318Spectrum of Visualizations 319Interactive Visualizations 320Commercial Interactive Data Visualization 320Custom Data and Analytics Visualization 320Methodology 322Model Elicitation 322Framework 323Considerations 323Data 324Analytic Tools 324Colors of Money 324Courses of Action 325Model Construction 325Strategic 326Budget 327Risk Identification and Mitigation 328Example: The MITRE Simulation, Experimentation and Analytics Lab (SEAL) 329Audio Visual Support 329Multi-Level Security 331Enterprise Integration 331Community of Practice 332Summary 33314 Using an Ontology to Design a Wargame/Simulation System 335Dean S. Hartley, IIIMotivation and Overview 335Introduction 336A Modern Conflict Ontology 337An Introduction to the MCO 337Actors 338Objects 339Actions 340Metrics or State Variables 342MCO Examples 343Provenance of the MCO 346Knowledge of Warfare 346Knowledge of OOTWs 346Modeling Issues 347Precursor Ontologies 348Early Versions of the MCO 349Creating a Simulation/Wargame from the Ontology 349Model Building Steps 350Moving from the Ontology to the Conceptual Model 352Building Block Concept 354Agendas and Implicit Metric Models 356Theoretical Metric Models 357VV&A 358Constructing the Scenario 361Model Infrastructure 361Conclusion 36215 Agent-Driven End Game Analysis for Air Defense 367M. Fatih Hocaogl̆ uMotivation and Overview 367Introduction 367Related Studies 369Agent- Directed Simulation and AdSiF 371AdSiF: Agent Driven Simulation Framework 373End Game Agent 374Command and Control Agent 374C2 Architecture and Information Sharing 379Target Evaluation 379Fire Decision 380Fire Doctrine 381Decision-Level Data Fusion 382Aims and Performance Measurement 384Types of End Game Analysis 388Footprint Analysis 390Operating Area 394Defended Area Analysis 395Scenario View 397Online Analysis and Scenario Replication Design 397An Air Defense Scenario: Scenario View 398Discussions 402Epilogue 407Index 411