Seeing into the Future

Martin van Creveld is Professor Emeritus at the Hebrew University, Jerusalem, and the author of many books including Conscience: A Biography (Reaktion, 2015), Wargames: From Gladiators to Gigabytes (2013) and The Privileged Sex (2013).

• Part I: A Mysterious Journey1 A Villain of a Magician2 In the Name of the Lord3 Oracles, Pythias and Sibyls4 A Dream to Remember5 Consulting the DeadPart II: Be Sober and Reasonable6 Searching the Heavens7 Clear and Manifest8 On Birds, Livers and Sacrifices9 The Magic of Numbers10 Decoding the BiblePart III: Enter Modernity11 From Patterns to Cycles12 With Hegel on the Brain13 Ask, and You'll Be Answered14 The Most Powerful Tools15 War Games Here, War Games TherePart IV: The Lord of the Universe16 Looking Backward17 Why is Prediction So Difficult?18 Is Our Game Improving?19 A World Without Uncertainty?ReferencesFurther ReadingAcknowledgements

"What will the weather be like tomorrow, next week, next year? Will there be another war, famine, global pandemic? Will the stock market rise or fall? In Seeing into the Future, military historian and theorist Martin van Creveld provides an overview of some of the myriad methods humans have devised over the millennia to foretell what is to come, from the ancients’ use of prophecy and astrology to today’s mathematical algorithms. In addition to delving into when, where, why, and how those techniques originated, he discusses such questions as why prediction is so difficult, whether modern humans are any better at making predictions than our ancestors were, and whether knowing the future is a good thing." - Physics Today"Creveld covers a broad range, from tribal shamans to Greek sibyls, Israeli prophets, the Prophet Muhammed, Hildegard of Bingen, Nostradamus, and contemporary mediums. In addition, Creveld describes such systematic approaches to prediction as omens, numerology, and the Bible and looks at the contemporary use of mathematical models, artificial intelligence, war games, algorithms, and the Delphi method, which solicits predictions from a number of people, all using their preferred methods for assessing the future . . . Recommended." - Choice"Martin Creveld’s new book, Seeing into the Future, examines the principal methods that have been used for looking into the future throughout history . . . Creveld’s original emphasis on the historical methods of prediction enriches previous scholarship. The book explores a number of predictive methods prevailing over time: speculation, deduction, extrapolation, polling, and modelling . . . Creveld’s historical overview could have modified Abraham Lincoln’s aphorism: the best way to predict your future is to engineer it." - Technology and Culture Journal"Van Creveld summarises this book by considering just how accurate these models can be, and indeed how accurate they should be. Any real ability to foresee the future is, he suggests, likely to be just as dangerous as past rulers thought they would be when they sentenced prophets and mystics to the flames or the axe! . . . This is an interesting book on a topic which we have all pondered at some time, and provides a great deal of food for thought." - Magonia Review of Books"Martin van Creveld’s Seeing into the Future is a widely informed and deeply thoughtful examination of a critical area of human concern. Anyone seeking insight into the futurology and forecasting, with its manifold involvements in religion, sociology, science, and practical affairs will profit from this instructive and insightful work." - Dr Nicholas Rescher, Distinguished Professor of Philosophy, University of Pittsburgh