Secular Cycles

Peter Turchin is professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and adjunct professor of mathematics at the University of Connecticut. Sergey A. Nefedov is senior research scientist at the Institute of History and Archaeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural Branch.

• Table of Units and Currencies ix Chapter 1: Introduction: The Theoretical Background 1 1.1 Development of Ideas about Demographic Cycles 1 1.2 A Synthetic Theory of Secular Cycles 6 1.3 Variations and Extensions 21 1.4 Empirical Approaches 29 Chapter 2: Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150-1485) 35 2.1 Overview of the Cycle 35 2.2 The Expansion Phase (1150-1260) 47 2.3 Stagflation (1260-1315) 49 2.4 Crisis (1315-1400) 58 2.5 Depression (1400-1485) 69 2.6 Conclusion 77 Chapter 3: Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485-1730) 81 3.1 Overview of the Cycle 81 3.2 Expansion (1485-1580) 87 3.3 Stagflation (1580-1640) 91 3.4 Crisis (1640-60) 97 3.5 Depression (1660-1730) 101 3.6 Conclusion 107 Appendix to Chapter 3 108 Chapter 4: Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150-1450) 111 4.1 Overview of the Cycle 111 4.2 Expansion (1150-1250) 115 4.3 Stagflation (1250-1315) 117 4.4 Crisis (1315-65) 121 4.5 Depression (1365-1450) 129 4.6 Conclusion: "A Near Perfect Multi-secular Cycle" 141 Chapter 5: Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450-1660) 143 5.1 Overview 143 5.2 Expansion (1450-1520) 147 5.3 Stagflation (1520-70) 149 5.4 Crisis (1570-1600) 153 5.5 A Case Study: The Norman Nobility 156 5.6 Depression (1600-1660) 169 5.7 Conclusion 174 Chapter 6: Rome: The Republican Cycle (350-30 BCE) 176 6.1 Overview of the Cycle 176 6.2 An Unusually Long Expansion (350-180 BCE) 185 6.3 Stagflation (180-130 BCE) 189 6.4 The Late Republican Crisis (130-30 BCE) 201 6.5 The End of the Disintegrative Trend 205 6.6 Conclusion 208 Chapter 7: Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE-285 CE) 211 7.1 Overview of the Cycle 211 7.2 Expansion (27 BCE-96 CE) 224 7.3 Stagflation (96-165 CE) 229 7.4 Crisis (165-97 CE) 233 7.5 Depression (197-285 CE) 236 7.6 Conclusion 238 Chapter 8: Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460-1620) 240 8.1 The Fifteenth-Century Crisis 240 8.2 Expansion (1460-1530) 241 8.3 Stagflation (1530-65) 244 8.4 Crisis (1565-1615) 252 8.5 Conclusion 258 Chapter 9: Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620-1922) 261 9.1 Expansion (1620-1800) 261 9.2 Stagflation (1800-1905) 274 9.3 Crisis (1905-22) 287 9.4 Conclusion 299 Chapter 10: General Conclusions 303 10.1 Population Numbers 303 10.2 Elite Dynamics 304 10.3 The State 306 10.4 Sociopolitical Instability 307 10.5 Are There General Laws of Historical Dynamics? 311 Acknowledgments 315 References Cited 317 Index 341

"This book is an audacious and ambitious attempt to promote the viewpoint that historical progression runs according to certain regular patterns... I am fascinated by this book, particularly by the theoretical framework which is laid out in the introductory and concluding chapters... [T]he main strength of the book lies in its scope, reminiscent of the broad perspectives of classical economists. It is the type of scholarship which proves that historical narrative can be fascinating."--Harry Kitsikopoulos, EH.net "Those who are interested in grand social theories will want to read and reflect. I suspect that there will be many who then will rebut."--Brian J. L. Berry, American Journal of Sociology "Turchin and Nefedov have set a very ambitious task for themselves... [T]hey should be applauded for producing a work of very broad historical sweep and reminding us that developing general laws--or more plausibly, general tendencies--of historical dynamics remains a tantalizing proposition."--David S. Jacks, Australian Economic History Review "[T]he standard of historical scholarship is excellent and opens the floor to interesting challenges for further empirical explorations."--Laura Panza, Economic Record