Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems

The Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) of the National Research Council (NRC) is engaged in studying the priorities and future strategies for hydrologic science. In order to involve a broad community representation, COHS is organizing workshops on priority topics in hydrologic science. These efforts will culminate in reports from the NRC on the individual workshops as well as a synthesis report on strategic directions in hydrologic science. The first workshop-Predictability and Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems-was held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, September 21-22, 2000. Fourteen technical presentations covered basic research and understanding, model formulations and behavior, observing strategies, and transition to operational predictions. Table of Contents Front Matter 1. Background and Goals 2. Predictability Science: Definitions 3. Challenges in Predictability Science and Limits-to-Prediction for Hydrologic Systems 4. Conclusions References Appendix A: Workshop Agenda and List of Participants Appendix B: Summary of Selected Papers Presented at Workshop Appendix C: National Research Council Board Membership and Staff Appendix D: Biographical Sketches of Committee on Hydrologic Science