Quest for Prosperity

Justin Yifu Lin is founding director and professor at the China Centre for Economic Research at Peking University. From 2008 to 2012, he served as chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank. His many books include Demystifying the Chinese Economy and Economic Development and Transition. He is a corresponding fellow of the British Academy, and a fellow of the World Academy of Sciences for the Developing World.

• Preface to the Paperback Edition ix Prologue xix An Intriguing Offer xx Strange Childhood Memories from Africa xxi 1New Challenges and New Solutions 1 The Bane of Excess Capacity 3 The Apparent Mystery of Economic Success 5 Taking Einstein's Joke Seriously: A New Structural Economics 8 2A Battle of Narratives and Changing Paradigms 13 Giving Meaning to One's Life 14 The Evolution of Growth 17 Deciphering the Mystery of Poverty and Wealth 20 Robert Lucas and the Drycleaner's Daughter 26 Explaining Convergence and Divergence 29 Development Thinking: A Tale of Progress, Waves, Fads, and Fashion 33 The Frustrating Search for New Answers 42 The Need for New Strategic Thinking 45 3Economic Development: Lessons from Failures 49 Viability as the Hidden Ingredient to Economic Success 52 The Political Economy of Dreams and Ignorance 61 "Do Not Look Where You Fell but Where You Slipped" 67 Not Throwing the Baby Out with the Bathwater 71 4Lessons from Successful Catch-up Countries 76 Squaring the Circle: The Contribution of The Growth Report 78 Recognizing That Some Countries May Have Found the Holy Grail 85 Modern Economic Growth: The Secret of Advanced Countries 97 5A Framework for Rethinking Development: A New Structural Economics 102 Why Burundi Is Not Switzerland 104 Understanding Economic Development: A Conceptual Framework 108 The Optimal Speed and Sequencing of Prosperity 112 Putting New Wine in New Bottles 117 6What Would Be Done Differently under the New Structural Economics? 121 Fiscal Policy: Free Airplanes, Railroads, and Bridges? 123 Money to Impoverish--or Money to Enrich 127 Surviving Wealth: Public Revenue Management in Resource-Rich Countries 130 Financial Development: Those Bankers We Love to Hate 136 The Need for Poor Countries to Choose Their Type of Foreign Capital 139 Sorting Out the Paradoxes of Trade Policy 141 Deciphering the Mysteries of Human Development 143 7Putting the New Structural Economics into Practice: Two Tracks and Six Steps 147 To Identify or Not to Identify: That Is the Question 149 How to Identify Industries with Latent Comparative Advantages: A Few Principles 154 A Practical Guide for Sequencing Structural Transformation 158 8The Peculiar Identities and Trajectories of Transition Economies 179 Imaginary Confessions in Heaven: The Politics of Reforms 181 Back to Earth: The Economics of Multiple Distortions 190 Options for Economic Reform: Big Bang or Gradualism? 195 Thriving Transitions: Lessons from China, Slovenia, and a Few Other Countries 201 9Fostering Structural Change at Higher Levels of Development 209 Fighting Off the Middle-Income Curse 214 Keeping Pace with the Times 221 GIF Principles and Continued Structural Transformation 224 Understanding the Economics of Wealth and Greatness 229 10A Recipe for Economic Prosperity 234 Understanding the True Nature and Causes of Economic Development 237 Industrial Policy in Action 242 Being Too Cautious: The Greatest Risk of All 246 Glossary 251 Notes 259 References 287 Index 309

"Lin, the chief economist and senior vice president for the World Bank from 2008 to 2012, tackles prevailing shibboleths in this provocative and challenging work... While there is no easy answer to these problems, Lin's reminder that such development is not a 'zero-sum game' suggests that his thoughtful study should resonate among international audiences."--Publishers Weekly "[A] brilliant survey of economic thought on the subject, from Adam Smith through Solow-Swan to Michael Spence's Growth Commission. Thousands of authoritative-sounding economic history essays will be written on the back of it by students smart enough to read it before their professors do... [A]s an accessible summary of how the World Bank ... thinks about development these days, The Quest for Prosperity is hard to beat. It will quickly find its way on to the course reading lists for development economics master's programmes."--Howard Davies, Times Higher Education "Justin Lin, the Chinese economist who was, until recently, chief economist of the World Bank, has written a book that is as remarkable as it is ambitious: its aim is to show the route to economic development. This is ambitious, because it has been the holy grail of economics since its inception. It is remarkable, because he largely succeeds. One does not have to accept everything Lin argues to recognise that he has made an invaluable contribution... Moreover, the book is also excellently written. A book on a subject of the highest importance, which is intelligent, original, practical and thought-provoking, deserves indeed to be read."--Martin Wolf, Financial Times "In this book, Justin Yifu Lin, the World Bank's first non-western chief economist, offers a fascinating overview of development thinking since the Second World War."--Lisa Moyle, Financial World "Here, Lin, a former chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank, explains here in detail the model he created there for developing economies to achieve success and sustainability... The book is well organized and thus it is easy for readers to find information discussed throughout the book as a whole. Lin's use of history and popular culture metaphors make complex economic concepts more accessible to lay readers, especially in his analysis of global economics."--Library Journal "The most valuable new book I've read this year is Justin Yifu Lin's The Quest for Prosperity... Lin's book is intellectually ambitious. He sets out to survey the modern history of economic development and distill a practical formula for growing out of poverty. It's a serious undertaking: Lin isn't trying to be another pop economics sensation. But The Quest for Prosperity is lightly written and accessible. It weaves in pertinent stories and observations, drawing especially from his travels with the World Bank. He leavens the economics skillfully."--Clive Crook, Bloomberg News "Lin ... makes a case for what he calls a 'new structuralist' approach to economic development. Drawing on the experience of many countries, especially China, he argues for an active role for government in fostering development, not only through the traditional provision of infrastructure and the enforcement of rules but also in identifying and supporting industries that contribute to growth... Lin presents a thought-provoking argument."--Foreign Affairs "The book is peppered with deep insights from economic thought, practical wisdom, and personal experience, and is easily accessible to policy makers, business leaders, and undergraduates studying development economics."--Choice "[T]his is indeed a stimulating volume, clearly indicating the author's extraordinary command of the development literature and his equally extraordinary level of motivation in making his case."--Gustav Ranis, Journal of Economic Literature "The Quest for Prosperity is an interesting and enjoyable read."--Mukti P. Upadhyay, European Journal of Developmental Research