Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis in the Asia Pacific

Kai He is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Utah State University and the author of Institutional Balancing in the Asia Pacific: Economic Interdependence and China’s Rise (Routledge, 2009). He was a postdoctoral fellow in the Princeton–Harvard China and the World Program and has published in European Journal of International Relations, Security Studies, Review of International Studies, and The Pacific Review.Huiyun Feng is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Utah State University and the author of Chinese Strategic Culture and Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Confucianism, Leadership and War (Routledge, 2007). She was a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the United States Institute of Peace and has published in Security Studies, The Pacific Review, Chinese Journal of International Politics, and Asian Perspective.

• 1. Prospect Theory, Neoclassical Realism, and Foreign Policy Puzzles in Asian Security. 2. "Why Is There No NATO in Asia" Revisited: U.S. Alliance Strategy under Risk. 3. North Korea Goes Nuclear: Rational Decisions and Risky Behavior. 4. China’s Policy toward Taiwan under Risk: Between Military Coercion and Political Pressure. 5. China-Japan Territorial Disputes in the East China Sea: Risky Behavior during Power Transition. 6. Rational Leaders and Risky Decisions: Risk-Taking Behavior in World Politics

"The authors of this excellent book investigate puzzles in the domain of Asian security studies and contrast agent-centered solutions provided by neoclassical realist theory with system-oriented solutions provided by structural neorealist theory. Prospect theory is employed to enrich a rational choice account of internal and external constraints on security decisions in the Asia-Pacific region. The results are fruitful, coherent, and cumulative, advancing our understanding of the interplay of causal mechanisms within two traditions of international relations theory as well as two models of foreign policy decision-making theory."—Stephen G. Walker, Arizona State University"This book takes up a wide range of enduring and yet timely topics, such as the genesis of the U.S. hub-and-spokes alliance system in Asia and the evolving interactions regarding North Korea's nuclear program. He and Feng bring together these cases under a unifying theme of risk-taking (or risk-avoidance) behavior by leaders depending on whether these officials' political legitimacy is under strain or relatively secured. The book makes a contribution to the study of Asia Pacific relations by extending an important non-rationalist theory to the study of significant substantive and policy questions, and by adding to the growing body of literature on how prospect theory can inform our understanding about foreign policy decisions."—Steve Chan, University of Colorado, Boulder