STEFAN GERLACH is the former Executive Director of the Research Department at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Director of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. He has published extensively in the areas of Macroeconomics and money and finance, and holds a PhD from the University of Geneva. PAUL GRUENWALD is the International Monetary Fund's Resident Representative in Hong Kong SAR. He joined the IMF in 1992, and has extensive experience in Northeast Asia and Latin America, particularly in capital and financial markets issues. He holds a PhD in Economics from Columbia Univer