Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences

Allan H. Murphy and Richard W. Katz

• Preface -- 1. EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC DATA /Thomas E. Graedel and Beat Kleiner -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Summarization and Exposure of Sets of One- Dimensional Data -- 3. Analyzing Two Sets of Data -- 4. Comparing Several Sets of Data -- 5. Summary and Conclusions -- 2. DEVELOPING EMPIRICAL MODELS WITH MULTIPLE REGRESSION: BIASED ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES /Donald W. Marquardt and Ronald D. Snee -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Theory and Illustrative Examples -- 3. Use of Biased Estimation in Data Analysis. -- 3. EXPLORATORY MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF A SINGLE BATCH OF DATA /K. Ruben Gabriel -- 1. Introduction -- 2. One Batch of Multivariate Data and Their Descriptive Statistics -- 3. The Geometry and Display of a Batch of Multivariate Data -- 4. Data Analysis of the Variables' Configuration. -- 5. Analyzing the Scatter of the Units -- 6. Joint Analysis of Variables and Units -- Modeling. -- 7. Other Literature -- 4. MULTIVARIATE COMPARISONS OF DATA FROM SEVERAL BATCHES /K. Ruben Gabriel -- Comparing Several Batches of Observations On Tests of Significance -- 5. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS -- FREQUENCY DOMAIN /Richard H. Jones -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Terminology -- 3. Periodic Mean Functions -- 4. Estimating the Spectral Density -- 5. Estimating via the Covariance Function. -- 6. Estimating the Covariance Function via Two Passes of the FFT -- 7. The Effects of Filtering. -- 8. Testing Hypotheses -- 9. Multivariate Time Series -- 6. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS -- TIME DOMAIN /Richard H. Jones. -- 1. Introduction -- 2. First-Order Autoregression -- 3. Higher-Order Autoregressions -- 4. Order Selection -- 5. Autoregressive-Moving Average Models. -- 6. Hypothesis Tests -- 7. Multivariate Time Series -- 8. State Space Recursive Estimation -- 7. PROBABILISTIC MODELS, Richard W. Katz. -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Examples -- 3. Probability Theory -- 4. Statistical Inference -- 8. STATISTICAL WEATHER FORECASTING, Harry R. Glahn. -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Methods of Application. -- 3. Histograms -- 4. Scatter Diagrams -- 5. Regression -- 6. Discriminant Analysis -- 7. Canonical Correlation -- 8. Logit Model -- 9. Map Typing -- 10. Analogues -- 11. Present Status -- 12. Future of Statistical Weather Forecasting -- 9. PROBABILISTIC WEATHER FORECASTING /Allan H. Murphy -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Probability Forecasts: Definition, Interpretation, and Motivation -- 3. Objective Probability Forecasts Subjective Probability Forecasts Communication of Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts -- 10 FORECAST EVALUATION /Allan H. Murphy and Harald Daan. -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Nature and Purposes of Evaluation -- 3. Predictands, Forecasts, and Attributes -- 4. Some Desirable Properties of Evaluation Measures -- 5. Some Inferential Measures for Categorical Forecasts -- 6. Some Inferential Measures for Probability Forecasts -- 7. Some Related Topics -- 11 DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF WEATHER MODIFICATION EXPERIMENTS /Paul W. Mielke, Jr. -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Experimental Designs -- 3. Evaluation Procedures -- 12 BAYESIAN INFERENCE /Robert L. Winkler -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Bayes' Theorem -- 3. Bayesian Inference with Discrete Prior Distributions -- 4. Bayesian Inference with Continuous Prior Distributions -- 5. Assessment of Likelihood Functions and Prior Distributions. -- 6. Estimation, Hypothesis Testing, Prediction, and Decision Making -- 7. Bayesian Inference in Meteorology. -- 13 DECISION ANALYSIS /Robert L. Winkler and Allan H. Murphy. -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Elements of Decision Analysis. -- 3. Decision Criteria -- 4. Assessment of Probabilities. -- 5. Assessment of Utilities -- 6. Value of Information -- 7. Sequential Decisions -- 8. Sensitivity Analysis -- 9. Some Applications of Decision Analysis in Meteorology -- About the Contributors -- Index -- Other Titles of Interest from Westview Press -- About the Book and Editors.