Probability and the Art of Judgment

• Preface; 1. Introduction: radical probabilism; 2. Valuation an dacceptance of scientific hypotheses; 3. Probable knowledge; 4. Probability and the art of judgment; 5. Bayesianism with a human face; 6. Alias Smith and Jones: the testimony of the senses; 7. Conditioning, kinematics, and exchangeability; 8. Preference among preferences; 9. On interpersonal utility theory; 10. Remarks on interpersonal utility theory; 11. Mises redux; 12. Statistical explanation vs. statistical inference; 13. New foundations for Bayesian decision theory; 14. Frameworks for preference; 15. Axiomatizing the logic of decision; 16. A note on the kinematics of preference.

"Probability and the Art of Judgment is a valuable addition to the literature of decision theory for its broad presentation of Jeffrey's thought and for the stimulation and challenge it provides. Graduate students and researchers who study preference, subjective probability, or decision theory from either a descriptive or normative orientation can find it a rich source of ideas." Journal of Mathematical Psychology