Primer to Causal Reasoning About a Complex World

Lars-Göran Johansson is emeritus professor of theoretical philosophy at Uppsala University, Sweden. He has published seven books and a number of papers  in general philosophy of science, epistemology and philosophy of physics. Four of the books are textbooks, three in Swedish, one in English. His research focuses on laws of nature, causation, induction, the interpretation of quantum mechanics and of string theory.  In all areas he is arguing for an empiricist and naturalistic approach to philosophical issues in science in general and natural science in particular. Thomas Banitz is a mathematician at the Department of Ecological Modelling at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ in Leipzig, Germany. He develops and applies computational models for various systems, for example terrestrial plant communities, social-ecological systems, or microbial ecosystems.He uses models to study key mechanisms in such systems, emergent population and community dynamics and ecosystem functions. Specific topics include the causes and consequences of organisms’ dispersal, interactions, traits, diversity and spatiotemporal organization, and effects of environmental heterogeneity, stress, disturbance and change. His work also focuses on the concepts and methods for developing and analyzing different kinds of computational models (e.g. population-level models, individual-based models), for combining these models with data (e.g. digital twinning), and for using them to understand and predict system dynamics under various environmental regimes.  Volker Grimm is a biologist and physicist at the Department of Ecological Modelling at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ in Leipzig, and Professor Emeritus of Theoretical Ecology at the University of Potsdam. He is co-author of both a monograph and the first textbook on agent-based modelling. His research focuses on optimising model development, communication and validation. He has been involved in modelling a wide range of plant and animal populations and communities. Using agent-based models, he seeks to link behaviour and personality to population and community dynamics. More recently, he has chaired the standards working group of the Open Modelling Foundation and is involved in the development of a honey bee model towards a ‘digital twin’. Through his work on standards such as ODD and TRACE, he has collaborated with colleagues from a wide range of disciplines. Tilman Hertz  is a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre/Stockholm University. He is particularly interested in applying process-relational perspectives to the analysis of complex adaptive systems such as social-ecological systems with a particular focus on the topic of causation and transformations towards sustainability. He is also interested in the theoretical and practical aspects related to the conceptualization and implementation of change-making processes and actively involved contributing to the scholarship on complexity-aware “theories of change”.   Emilie Lindkvist holds a Ph.D. in sustainability science, and works as a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Center, where she leads the Interacting Complexities research group and several international research projects. Complex causality is a central theme in her research, where she uses simulation modeling, particularly agent-based modeling, to uncover complex causal relationships in combination with empirical research. Employing an inter- and transdisciplinary approach, she actively engages with fellow academics and practitioners from diverse fields. Lindkvist’s research covers various cases worldwide, including Mexico, Tanzania, French Polynesia, and Sweden. Her research has yielded important insights into diverse phenomena, including social differentiation, cooperation, self-governance, sustainable resource use, inequality, compliance, and well-being, often in the context of small-scale fisheries and development research. Lindkvist’s research contributes significantly to the advancement of sustainability efforts through theory development and action-oriented research on social-ecological systems.    Sonja Radosavljevic is a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. She has a PhD in theoretical and applied mathematics and strong interest in sustainability science. She uses mathematical tools, in particular dynamical systems and evolutionary game-theoretic models, to explore how system structure influences its dynamics, brings about observed behavior, and enables or prevents transformations of social-ecological systems.  She leads a project on sustainable poverty alleviation that aims to explore how farmers’ decision-making in interaction with agroecological dynamics can enable escape from poverty and improve food security without putting people or nature at risk.  Rodrigo Martinez Peña is a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. With a background in biology and sociology, his interests revolve around understanding social-ecological interactions with a particular focus on transformations towards sustainability. His interests also include epistemology of causation in complex systems, developing theoretical tools to study social-ecological systems, traditional knowledge, participatory action research and studying the role of scientists as actors of change. Petri Ylikoski is a Professor of Science and Technology Studies at the University of Helsinki. He started his career as a philosopher but now considers himself a social scientist. His research interests include theories of explanation and evidence, social studies of science, and social theory. His current research focuses on the foundations of mechanism-based social science, institutional epistemology, and the social consequences of artificial intelligence. His papers have been published in journals like Annual Review of Sociology, Philosophical Studies, Erkenntnis and Synthese. Maja Schlüter is Professor of Social-Ecological Systems science at the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University. She leads an interdisciplinary team of empirical researchers and modellers that study processes of adaptive and transformative change in social-ecological systems from complex adaptive systems and process-relational perspectives. Through combining in-depth case study research with agent-based or dynamical systems modelling, she seeks to unravel causal mechanisms that explain social-ecological phenomena such as fisheries collapse, agricultural innovation, small-scale trading or marine governance. She is also interested in the philosophical and theoretical foundations of SES research, including building middle-range theories, and developing collaborative methodologies for dealing with complex causality. The aim of her theoretical work is to advance understanding and theorizing that moves beyond the dichotomy of humans and nature and accounts for the contextual and dynamic nature of social-ecological systems. Her work and the work of her group has been supported by several grants from the European Research Council, the Swedish Research Council and other EU programmes.

• Chapter 1. Introduction: Causation in Social-Ecological Systems.- Part I: Semantics of causal expressions.- Chapter 2. Causal Talk Permeates Ordinary Language.- Chapter 3. Causal Talk is Fundamental.- Chapter 4. Causation, Counterfactual Dependence and Potential Outcomes.- Part II: Causation in Science.- Chapter 5. Causal Relations and Causal Relata in Science.- Chapter 6. Causation, Laws and Regularities.- Chapter 7. Inferences from Statistics to Causation.- Chapter 8. Causal Explanations.- Part III: Causation in Complex SES.- Chapter 9. Causation in Social-Ecological Systems Research.- Part IV: Appendices.- A How Does a Theory Relate to Reality?.- B Models.- C. Confidence Intervals and Correlations.