Predicting the Unpredictable

Susan Elizabeth Hough is a seismologist with the Southern California Earthquake Center and a fellow of the American Geophysical Union. Her books include Richter's Scale and Earthshaking Science (both Princeton).

• 1. Ready to Rumble 1 2. Ready to Explode 12 3. Irregular Clocks 29 4. The Hayward Fault 39 5. Predicting the Unpredictable 47 6. The Road to Haicheng 58 7. Percolation 86 8. The Heyday 96 9. The Hangover 108 10. Highly Charged Debates 125 11. Reading the Tea Leaves 141 12. Accelerating Moment Release 150 13. On the Fringe 158 14. Complicity 171 15. Measles 191 16. We All Have Our Faults 196 17. The Bad One 206 18. Whither Earthquake Prediction? 222 Acknowledgments 231 Notes 233 General Index 255 Index of Earthquakes by Year 261 Preface to the Paperback Edition vii

"Susan Hough's book about earthquake prediction reminds us that many respectable scientists and numerous nutcases have tried--and failed. Predicting the Unpredictable tells us what has been tested and abandoned and why. It follows the winding path taken by this potentially useful discipline in the past four decades, from the shadows to centre stage and back again... Famous moments in earthquake prediction are dissected for the reader through Hough's diligent research in obscure archives; history will thank her for these abandoned threads."--Roger Bilham, Nature "Hough's book, however, is not frustrating at all; it offers an enlightening, fair and insightful look at how one science has dealt with the intersection of an extremely hard problem with legitimate public demands for results. Those of us in other fields who read it may find ourselves profiting from the example someday."--Cosma Shalizi, American Scientist "In this forensic and engaging overview, Susan Hough presents a frank, entertaining and personal review of the history of ideas, practice, personalities and experience in the science of earthquake prediction. Although Hough is a respected scientist, she takes a journalist's viewpoint here, not shying away from legitimate criticism of those she regards as friends, and taking on the credulous at the edge of, or even beyond, the mainstream scientific."--Ian Main, Times Higher Education "Susan Hough is all about solid science, and her examples of accepted research that turned out to be dead wrong will resonate with readers suspicious of anybody who predicts the future."--Stephen Matchett, Australian "Earthquake prediction is on everybody's mind when reports of the horrific event make headlines. Why the failure to predict it, especially in this age of scientific and technological achievements? Hough tells readers why in this deeply interesting, enlightening, and entertaining book... The book skillfully weaves the influence of politics, economics, and psychology into this authentic, delightfully perceptive account of earthquake prediction science."--Choice "[T]his book can be enjoyed by anyone, but it will be enjoyed most by seismologists because it is a treasure of seismological lore, as well as a useful guide and moral support for those participating in what Susan calls the 'combat sport' of seismic prediction research."--F. A. Nava, Pure and Applied Geophysics "This book is sparkling, entertaining, and a good read and ... it is a rocking piece of literature. It keeps a delicate balance between the genuine scientific efforts and the difficulties, which scientists face in prediction science."--Afroz A. Shah, Geosciences Journal