Playing against Nature

Seth Stein, Deering Professor of Geological Sciences at Northwestern University, is a seismologist interested in the science of large earthquakes and earthquake hazard mitigation. He has been awarded the James B. Macelwane Medal of the American Geophysical Union, the George Woollard Award of the Geological Society of America, the Stephan Mueller Medal of the European Geosciences Union, the Price Medal of the Royal Astronomical Society and a Humboldt Foundation Research Award.The late Jerome Stein, who was Eastman Professor of Economics at Brown University, had interests including decision theory and formation of public policy.

• Preface xi Acknowledgments xivNote on Further Reading and Sources xviAbout the Companion Website xviii1 A Tricky, High-Stakes Game 11.1 Where We Are Today 11.2 What We Need to Do Better 61.3 How Can We Do Better? 14Questions 17Further Reading and Sources 19References 202 When Nature Won 222.1 The Best-Laid Plans 222.2 Why Hazard Assessment Went Wrong 242.3 How Mitigation Fared 302.4 The Challenges Ahead 32Questions 35Further Reading and Sources 35References 363 Nature Bats Last 383.1 Prediction Is Hard 383.2 Forecasts, Predictions, and Warnings 403.3 Earthquake Prediction 453.4 Chaos 50Questions 53Further Reading and Sources 54References 554 Uncertainty and Probability 574.1 Basic Ideas 574.2 Compound Events 604.3 The Gaussian Distribution 644.4 Probability vs Statistics 684.5 Shallow and Deep Uncertainties 70Questions 72Further Reading and Sources 73References 745 Communicating What We Know and What We Don’t 755.1 Recognizing and Admitting Uncertainties 755.2 Precision and Accuracy 815.3 Testing Forecasts 835.4 Communicating Forecasts 86Questions 93Further Reading and Sources 94References 956 Human Disasters 976.1 Assessing Hazards 976.2 Vulnerability and Interconnections 996.3 The 2008 US Financial Disaster 1016.4 Pseudodisasters and Groupthink 1056.5 Disaster Chic 109Questions 110Further Reading and Sources 112References 1137 How Much Is Enough? 1157.1 Rational Policy Making 1157.2 Lessons from National Defense 1197.3 Making Choices 1227.4 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion 1247.5 Present and Future Value 1267.6 Valuing Lives 1297.7 Implications for Natural Hazard Mitigation 131Questions 132Further Reading and Sources 134References 135Contents ix8 Guessing the Odds 1368.1 Big Events Are Rare 1368.2 Time-Independent Probability Models 1408.3 Time-Dependent Probability Models 145Questions 149Further Reading and Sources 150References 1509 When’s the Next Earthquake? 1519.1 A Very Tough Problem 1519.2 Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Relation 1529.3 Earthquake Cycle Model 1589.4 Computing Earthquake Probabilities 1689.5 Shaky Probabilities 170Questions 172Further Reading and Sources 174References 17510 Assessing Hazards 17610.1 Five Tough Questions 17610.2 Uncertainties 17710.3 How Is the Hazard Defi ned? 17810.4 Where Will Large Earthquakes Occur? 18210.5 When Will Large Earthquakes Occur? 18710.6 How Big Will the Large Earthquakes Be? 19010.7 How Much Shaking? 19410.8 Dealing With the Uncertainties 19610.9 Next Steps 200Questions 201Further Reading and Sources 201References 20211 Mitigating Hazards 20411.1 Approaches 20411.2 Accepting Risk 20511.3 Transferring Risk 20611.4 Avoiding Risk 20711.5 Mitigating Risk 20811.6 Combined Strategies 213Questions 214Further Reading and Sources 217References 21712 Choosing Mitigation Policies 22012.1 Making Choices 22012.2 House Fire Mitigation 22312.3 Losses from Hazards 22712.4 Optimal Natural Hazard Mitigation 22812.5 Nonoptimal Natural Hazard Mitigation 23212.6 Mitigation Given Uncertainties 23312.7 Robust Policy Making 235Questions 238Further Reading and Sources 239References 24013 Doing Better 24113.1 Final Thoughts 24113.2 Community Decision Making 24213.3 Improved Organization 244Questions 248Further Reading and Sources 249References 249Index 251

“That Rumsfeld’s pithy and precise summary of the nature of uncertainty in policymaking is often cited as opaque and obscurant shows more than anything the need for a book like this.”  (Survival Global Politics & Strategy,  1 February 2015)