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A practical framework for aligning intelligence analysis with operational military planning and forecasting Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War equips military planners and intelligence professionals with a clear methodology for synchronizing intelligence support with the demands of modern, multi-domain operations. With an emphasis on forecasting—anticipating how military force might resolve emerging crises—this comprehensive resource bridges the gap between theoretical understanding and real-world application. Michael W. Fowler guides planners in articulating their intelligence needs and offers analysts a systematic approach to meeting them, from the formulation of courses of action to the development of robust collection plans. Through a focused exploration of operational-level research methods, Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War equips practitioners with the analytical tools necessary to evaluate adversary capabilities, forecast behaviors, and support decision-making across. With practical examples applicable to air, maritime, space, cyber, and special operations domains, this book is structured to address the learning curve associated with transitioning to higher levels of command. Tailored for those navigating the complexity of joint task forces and combatant commands, Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War: Offers a step-by-step approach to creating intelligence forecasts at the operational levelOrganizes operational analysis around a phased model of conflict escalation for clarity and coherenceFeatures a unique framework for analyzing partner nation behavior and military cooperationProvides specific techniques for aligning intelligence products with the needs of joint force commandersAddresses the critical challenge of building collection plans tied to priority intelligence requirementsDrawing from decades of operational lessons learned, Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War: Research Methods to Support Military Operations is essential reading for military officers, analysts, and planners operating at joint or component command levels. It supports coursework in military and strategic studies, intelligence analysis, and security studies at both undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable tool for professional military education programs and wargame designers seeking to integrate realistic intelligence scenarios into operational simulations.
MICHAEL W. FOWLER is Associate Professor of Military and Strategic Studies at the United States Air Force Academy. He holds a PhD from the Naval Postgraduate School and is the lead author of Military Strategy, Joint Operations, and Airpower. His research spans military intelligence analysis, collection management, targeting, and wargame design.
List of Frequently Used Acronyms xiAbout the Author xvPART I: THINKING LIKE A MILITARY OPERATIONAL ANALYST 1Chapter 1: Introduction to Military Intelligence and Planning 3Chapter 2: Intelligence: The Process at the Operational Level of War 19Chapter 3: Framing Military Problems: Selecting an Analytical Scheme 43Chapter 4: Making the Analysis Customer-centric 57PART II: OPERATIONAL FORECASTING 73Chapter 5: Developing Rough Courses of Action 75Chapter 6: Considering Security Partners 95Chapter 7: Forecasting Detailed Courses of Action 117PART III: DEVELOPING DETAILED OPERATIONAL COURSES OF ACTION 133Chapter 8: A Framework for Estimating Feasibility and Viability 135Chapter 9: Information Warfare: Space, Cyber, and Information Operations Capabilities 151Chapter 10: Unconventional Forces 175Chapter 11: Area Denial Capabilities 193Chapter 12: Anti-access Capabilities 217Chapter 13: Securing Sea Lanes 245Chapter 14: Seizing Territory and the Close Fight 271PART IV: DETECTION 291Chapter 15: Prioritized Intelligence Requirements: Indicators and Decisions 293Chapter 16: Collection Planning: What Is Knowable? 305Chapter 17: Conclusion: Synchronizing Intelligence and Planning 327Bibliography 337Web Resources 345Index 347