Perspectives on Complex Global Challenges

Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, PhD, is the Burt and Deedee McMurtry Professor of Engineering at Stanford University in the department of Management Science and Engineering, which she chaired from its creation in 2000 to 2011. She is a past president of the Society for Risk Analysis. She served as a member of the President’s (Foreign) Intelligence Advisory Board from 2001 to 2008. She is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and of several boards including InQtel, Draper Laboratory and Aerospace Corporation.William B. Rouse, PhD, is the Alexander Crombie Humphreys Chair of Economics in Engineering at Stevens Institute of Technology, and Director of the university-wide Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Dr. Rouse is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.Charles M. Vest, PhD, was president emeritus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and president emeritus of the National Academy of Engineering.  A mechanical engineer, he previously was dean of engineering and provost at the University of Michigan, and was a trustee of several universities and non-profit organizations devoted to education, research, and national security.

• Contributors xiiiIntroduction and Overview 1Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, William B. Rouse, and Charles M. VestCan America Still Compete? 17Norman R. AugustineSection I Education 211 Introduction 23Overview of Contributions 28References 302 K-12 Education Reform in the United States 33Craig R. BarrettGreat Teachers 35High Expectations 36Tension in the System 36Intelligent use of Technology in the Classroom 37Make Education Relevant for the Student 383 Secure America’s Economic Future by Investing in Young Children 41Deborah J. StipekReference 43Recommended Readings 434 The Future of Teaching in the United States 45Linda Darling-HammondReferences 485 The Conundrum of Controlling College Costs 49Lawrence S. BacowReferences 526 Military Education 53William J. PerrySection II Energy 597 Introduction 61Energy Demand 62The Electric Grid 64Nuclear Power 65Renewable Energy 66Role of Consumers 67Overview of Contributions 69References 718 The Future of the US Electric Grid 73Richard SchmalenseeSystem Organization 73Bulk Power 74Distribution 76Cybersecurity 78Concluding Observations 789 The Revolution in Natural Gas 81John Deutch10 The Future of Nuclear Power in the United States 85Richard A. Meserve11 Renewable Energy: Balancing Risk and Reward 89Richard H. Truly and Michal C. MooreSection III Healthcare 9312 Introduction 95Driving Forces 96Complexity of Decision Making 98Value and Healthcare Delivery 98Overview of Contributions 100References 10213 How to Move Toward Value-Based Healthcare? 105Denis A. Cortese and Robert K. SmoldtRecommended Readings 10714 Delivering on the Promise to Reduce the Cost of Healthcare with Electronic Health Records 109William W. SteadRecommended Readings 11215 Big Data in Health and Healthcare: Hopes and Fears for the Future 113Elizabeth A. McGlynn16 Medical Education: One Size Does not Fit All 117Lloyd B. Minor and Michael M.E. JohnsSection IV Security 12117 Introduction 123Emergence of Non-State Powers and Terrorist Groups 123Resizing the US Nuclear Arsenal 124Cybersecurity 125Intelligence 126Biological Weapons 126US Defense Budget 127Overview of Contributions 128References 13218 Vigilance in an Evolving Terrorism Landscape 133Michael E. Leiter19 The Market’s Role in Improving Cybersecurity 139Herbert LinReferences 14420 On Nuclear Weapons 145George P. Shultz21 The Nuclear Security Challenge: It is International 147Siegfried S. Hecker22 Nuclear Weapon Reductions Must be Part of Strategic Analysis 151Henry A. Kissinger and Brent Scowcroft23 Maintaining us Leadership in Science Technology and Innovation for National Security 155Jacques S. GanslerSection V Resilience 159 24 Introduction 161Framework for Urban Resilience 162Potential Approaches 163Overview of Contributions 164References 16725 Urban Resilience: How Cities need to Adapt to Unanticipated and Sudden Change 169Michael BattyReferences 17126 Buying Down Risks and Investing in Resilience 173Richard ReedReferences 17727 Resilience from the Perspective of a Chief Urban Designer 179Alexandros Washburn28 Engineering for Resilience: Ten Commandments of the Dutch Approach 183Theo ToonenSystem of Systems 186Public Expertise 187Crowded House 188Co-Governance 188Clear Direction 189Executive Leadership 190International Bat Strategy 191Implementation Democracy 191Shared Service 193Checks and Balances 193References 194Conclusions 195Index 197