Of Empires and Citizens

Amaney A. Jamal is associate professor of politics at Princeton University and the author of Barriers to Democracy (Princeton).

• List of Tables and Figures ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii A Note on Transliteration xv CHAPTER ONE Introduction: Pro- American Democracy or No Democracy at All? 1 The U.S. Strategic Approach to Democracy 3 Revisiting the Classical Models: Theoretical Limitations 12 Newer Democratization Debates 12 Revisiting State and Society Relations in Clientelistic Settings: Real Congruence versus Contrived Congruence 19 Empirical Realities: Jordan and Kuwait 21 U.S. Dominance in the Arab World 23 Anti-Americanism as the Independent Variable: Jordan and Kuwait 29 Scope Condition, Case- Selection Strategy, Data, and Evidence 34 Appendix: Human Development Index Scores and Jordan's Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate 36 CHAPTER TWO Becoming Jordan and Kuwait: The Making and Consolidating of U.S. Client Regimes 38 Jordan's History of Clientelistic Dependence 41 Post-World War II: Full Independence for Jordan but Continued Reliance on the British 43 Economic Devastation after the First Gulf War 46 Economic Progress and the Jordan- Israeli Peace Treaty, 1994 48 Continued Military and Economic Assistance: Increased Dependency 52 Kuwait's History of Clientelistic Dependence 54 The Iraqi Occupation of Kuwait and the Limits of Pan-Arabism 57 CHAPTER THREE Islamist Momentum in the Arab World: Jordan's Islamic Action Front and Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement 63 Islamists and Anti- American Positions across the Arab World 64 The IAF and its Anti-American Positions 66 IAF Support 69 The 1994 Peace Treaty with Israel 73 Other Islamist Forces in Jordan 78 Regime- IAF Relations: Democracy in Retreat 79 U.S. Policy and Islamists: Pro- American Democracy or No Democracy at All? 86 Kuwait's Islamist Movement: A Pro-American Force 89 Islamists and Their Positions: Democratic Deepening in Kuwait 92 Democratic Successes and Advancements: Female Suffrage, Redistricting, and Succession 94 Regime- Islamist Relations in Kuwait 100 CHAPTER FOUR Engaging the Regime through the Lens of the United States: Citizens' Political Preferences 103 Causal Logics Citizens Employ When Engaging Possibilities of Regime Change 104 Support for the Monarchy and U.S. Clientelism: Jordan 106 Support for the Monarchy and U.S. Clientelism: Kuwait 113 Supporting the Regime versus Supporting Democracy: Jordan 116 Supporting the Regime versus Supporting Democracy: Kuwait 121 The Geopolitics of Support for Shari'a: Different Islamic Worldviews in Jordan and Kuwait 128 Exploring Alternative Explanations 134 Conclusion 136 Appendix: Open- Ended Questionnaire Administered in Jordan, Kuwait, and Morocco 137 CHAPTER FIVE Support for Democracy and Authoritarianism: The Geostrategic Utility of Cooperative Leadership 142 Jordanian and Kuwaiti Engagements with Security, Democracy, and Authoritarianism 144 Main Argument: Given Dependence on the United States, Opposition Opinion and Mobilization Strategies Matter 147 Islamism and Anti-Americanism 153 Anti Americanism and Support for Democracy or Authoritarianism 155 Appendix: Macro-micro Synthesis-- The Relationship between Attitudes and Regime Outcomes 166 CHAPTER SIX Morocco: Support for the Status Quo 174 Moroccan International Clientelism 175 Islamist Positions in Morocco 177 Anti-American Sentiment 178 Islamist Popularity and Positions 180 Voices from within: Political Engagement and the Regime in Morocco 182 U.S. Responses to the Islamists in Morocco 190 CHAPTER SEVEN Palestine and Saudi Arabia and the Limits of Democracy 191 Fatah's Decline and the Victory of Hamas 193 The U.S. Response to Hamas 198 Why Did the Palestinians Vote for Hamas? 199 Saudi Arabia and Its Status Quo Advantage 203 Islamist Positions in Saudi Arabia 208 Regime Responses, the Reform Movement, and the United States 211 The Role of the United States 214 Conclusion 219 Appendix: Questions from the PSR Poll 220 CHAPTER EIGHT The Influence of International Context on Domestic- Level Models of Regime Transition and Democratic Consolidation 221 Theorizing about Nonclient Regimes 223 Egypt's Future Democratic Consolidation 224 The Clash of Civilizations and the Search for Liberal and Secular Democrats 227 Iran's Influence 231 Possible Paths Forward 232 Ignoring Arab Public Opinion and the Islamist Response 233 The Lesson of Latin America 238 Reassessing U.S. Policies in the Arab World 239 From Bush to Obama 241 Where Do We Go Next? 242 Bibliography 245 Index 267

"[A] provocative work that challenges the terms of a very stale debate among three main camps: those who see Arab anti-Americanism as the product of a deep, unique civilizational hatred; those who see anti-Americanism as simple and predictable resentment of the world's sole superpower, common across the globe and not unique to Arab countries; and those who see it as a rational response to U.S. policies that Arabs believe have systematically harmed their interests... If Jamal is right, then much of the received wisdom of the last decade needs to be reconsidered."--Marc Lynch, Foreign Affairs "Contrasting the prospects for democratization in Jordan and Kuwait, Jamal argues that Jordanians prefer a stable monarchy to a democracy dominated by anti-American Islamists because they fear that the US would punish Jordan economically if Islamists won elections... [Of Empires and Citizens] makes a nice addition to the comparative politics literature by emphasizing how geostrategic relations shape state-society negotiations over political change... [R]eaders will gain many insights about Jordanian and Kuwaiti political beliefs from the public opinion surveys and interviews from 2005 to 2007 that the author interprets."--Choice "The book reflects a huge academic effort, a 'massive data collection effort in three countries' of Jordan, Morocco and Kuwait. The effort is reflected by the thorough presentation of evidence."--James Denselow, Huffington Post "The book has a readable style that is not over-burdened with technical jargon. Challenging traditional culturalist and structuralist explanations for the lack of democracy in the Middle East, it uses core-periphery theory an as explanatory framework for authoritarian resilience."--Alexander P. Martin, New Middle Eastern Studies "The book reflects a huge academic effort, a 'massive data collection effort in three countries', Jordan, Morocco and Kuwait. The effort is reflected by the thorough presentation of evidence: the work includes detailed foot- and endnotes, chapter appendices complete with snippets of the author's methodology, questionnaires and further hypotheses... Through this evidence-based look into the relationships between client and patron and between state and society, Jamal explores a simple idea, demonstrated well."--James Denselow, International Affairs