New Order in the Gulf

Dina Esfandiary is Senior Advisor in the Middle East and North Africa department of the International Crisis Group (ICG), Belgium. She worked previously at The Century Foundation, U.S and the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, U.S. She is the co-author of Triple-Axis: Iran’s Relations with Russia and China (I.B Tauris, 2018) and Living on the Edge: Iran and the?Practice of Nuclear Hedging (2016). She has also published in Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, The Guardian, The Washington Post, The New York Times among others.

• IntroductionDefining the change and situating it in the context of a rapidly changing regionHistorical overview of relations between states in the Persian Gulf, including the 2003-2011 periodA discussion of domestic dynamics in the UAE: the rise of MBZChapter One: The Arab Uprisings: a key moment for the UAESummary of the eventsAn Arab Uprisings in the Persian Gulf?The impact of the Arab Uprisings on the UAECollapse of Arab powerhousesThe Perceived Rise of IranThe Perception of US influence and Power in the RegionChanges in the region following the Arab UprisingsChapter Two: The US Pivot to Asia: proof of a US departure from the regionThe History of the US presence in the Persian Gulf regionThe PivotThe impact of the Pivot on the regionChapter Three: The Iran nuclear deal: the final strawThe deal itselfThe Gulf Arabs and the Iran nuclear crisisThe impact of the deal on the UAEChapter Four: The UAE’s Assertiveness – what does it look like?Growing capabilitiesMilitaryPolitical and diplomatic cloutEconomic and Cultural influenceIntent, including the UAE’s deployment in regional arenasChapter Five: Assertiveness: The UAE’s perception of successCase Study: YemenPost 2020: Emirati over-reach?Chapter Six: The impact of the UAE’s assertiveness for the Persian Gulf: The 2017 splitDriven by the UAEEntrenchment of assertiveness for othersDid Al Ula resolve the dispute?Conclusion and recommendations for the West

A masterful overview of the UAE’s increasing assertive regional and international relations. Drawing on a vast range of sources, and impeccably referenced, this is required reading for everyone with a scholarly and practitioner interest in the region.