Neoclassical Realism and the Underdevelopment of China’s Nuclear Doctrine

Paolo Rosa is Professor of Political Science at the School of International Studies of the University of Trento, Italy. He is an associate of the EU Non-proliferation Consortium. His main research interests include Foreign Policy Analysis, Italian Foreign and Military Behaviour, Chinese Politics, Strategic Culture, Quantitative Analysis of Conflicts, and Peace Research.

• 1. Introduction: Competing explanations for the underdevelopment of China’s nuclear doctrine.- 2. A neoclassical realist approach to military doctrines.- 3. China’s nuclear programme: Origins and progress.- 4. Nuclear doctrine as a continuation of factional politics by other means, 1964-1971.- 5. Elite stability and nuclear doctrine formulation, 1978-1989.- 6. Conclusions.