Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Dr. Karin Riley is a Research Scientist in the Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group in the University of Montana, Missoula, Montana. Her research interest focuses on the calculation of risk to terrestrial carbon stocks and expected emissions for the continental US, tree-level spatial model for the continental US, modeling of change in burn probabilities under climate change, and validation of FSim Large Fire Simulator’s national burn probability and flame length outputs.Dr. Peter Webley is the Research Assistant Professor at the Geophysical Institute in the University of Alaska Fairbanks. His research interests lie in volcanic ash cloud and plume detection through thermal and visible remote sensing as well as volcanic ash cloud modeling using Lagrangian transport and dispersion models. Given his background in thermal and radar based remote sensing, he also has an interest in real-time detection of ground based volcanic activity through remote sensing datasets and how to sue these for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. Through his research projects and collaborations, Dr Webley works closely on with both groups across UAF as well as further afield in the USGS, NASA, NSF, State University of New York - Buffalo, Michigan Technology University. Within the University of Alaska Fairbanks, Dr Webley is the UAF Faculty Senate Research Advisory Committee co-chair as well yearly he provides an instructional two-week module for the Alaska Summer Research Academy. Outside Alaska, Dr Webley is the America's and Caribbean chair for the World Organization of Volcano Observatories and on the Steering Committee of the Global Volcano model project.Dr. Matthew Thompson is a Research Forester at the USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station in Missoula, MT. His research interest lies in application of principles from systems engineering, industrial engineering, risk analysis, operations research, economics, and decision-making under uncertainty to complex resource management with economic and environmental objectives.

• Contributors vii1 Uncertainty in Natural Hazards, Modeling and Decision Support: An Introduction to This Volume 1Karin Riley, Matthew Thompson, Peter Webley, and Kevin D HydePart I: Uncertainty, Communication, and Decision Support 92 Natural Hazard Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis 11Matthew Thompson and Jord J Warmink3 Understanding Uncertainty as a Key Interdisciplinary Problem in Earth System Science 21Florian Rauser and Gernot Geppert 4 Uncertainty and Probability in Wildfire Management Decision Support: An Example from the United States 31Matthew Thompson, David Calkin, Joe H Scott, and Michael Hand 5 Role of Uncertainty in Decision Support for Volcanic Ash Cloud Modeling 43Peter Webley Part II: Geological Hazards 576 Building an Uncertainty Modeling Framework for Real-Time VATD 59Peter Webley, Abani Patra, Marcus Bursik, E Bruce Pitman, Jonathan Dehn, Tarung Singh, Puneet Singla, Matthew D Jones, Reza Madankan, E Ramona Stefanescu, and Solene Pouget 7 Uncertainties in Estimating Magma Source Parameters from InSAR Observation 89Wenyu Gong, Zhong Lu, and Franz Meyer 8 Improving Model Simulations of Volcanic Emission Clouds and Assessing Model Uncertainties 105Nina Iren Kristiansen, Delia Arnold, Christian Maurer, Julius Vira, Razvan Rădulescu, Damien Martin, ndreas Stohl, Kerstin Stebel, Mikhail Sofiev, Colin O’Dowd, and Gerhard Wotawa 9 Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through the Energy Cone Model 125Pablo Tierz, Laura Sandri, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Lucia Zaccarelli, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, and Warner Marzocchi 10 Earthquake Loss Estimation in the Gyeongju Area, Southeastern Korea, Using a Site Classification Map 147Su Young Kang and Kwang-Hee Kim 11 Implications of Different Digital Elevation Models and Preprocessing Techniques to Delineate Debris Flow Inundation Hazard Zones in El Salvador 167Eric Ross Anderson, Robert E Griffin, and Daniel E Irwin 12 Evaluating the Performance of FLO2D for Simulating Past Lahar Events at the Most Active Mexican Volcanoes: Popocatépetl and Volcán de Colima 179Lizeth Caballero, Lucia Capra, and Rosario Vázquez Part III: Biophysical and Climatic Hazards 19113 An Uncertainty Analysis of Wildfire Modeling 193Karin Riley and Matthew Thompson14 Fire and Smoke Remote Sensing and Modeling Uncertainties: Case Studies in Northern Sub]Saharan Africa 215Charles Ichoku, Luke T Ellison, Yun Yue, Jun Wang, and Johannes W Kaiser 15 Uncertainty and Complexity Tradeoffs When Integrating Fire Spread with Hydroecological Projections 231Maureen C Kennedy and Donald McKenzie 16 Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Projections of Extremes in Monthly Area Burned Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA 245Adam J Terando, Brian Reich, Krishna Pacifici, Jennifer Costanza, Alexa McKerrow, and Jaime A Collazo 17 Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using CMIP5 Climate Projections 257D Bachelet, T Sheehan, K Ferschweiler, and J Abatzoglou 18 Sensitivity of Vegetation Fires to Climate, Vegetation, and Anthropogenic Drivers in the HESFIRE Model: Consequences for Fire Modeling and Projection Uncertainties 277Yannick Le Page 19 Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire 287Kevin D Hyde, Karin Riley, and Cathelijne Stoof 20 Capturing Spatiotemporal Variation in Wildfires for Improving Postwildfire Debris-Flow Hazard Assessments 301 Jessica R Haas, Matthew Thompson, Anne Tillery, and Joe H Scott 21 Uncertainty in Estimation of Debris-Flow Triggering Rainfall: Evaluation and Impact on Identification of Threshold Relationships 319E I Nikolopoulos, F Marra, and M Borga 22 Prospects in Landslide Prediction: Confronting the Challenges of Precipitation Uncertainty 329Natasha Markuzon, Catherine Slesnick, Erin Leidy, John Regan, Xiang Gao, and Adam Schlosser Index 337

"This volume, edited by Karin Riley, Peter Webley, and Matthew Thompson, tackles the often-neglected topic of uncertainty in judging the effectiveness of the natural disaster models used when informing action...While not for casual reading, this volume nonetheless provides an approachable way to learn about the realities of natural disaster modelling. In addition, it highlights the importance of uncertainty, an inseparable part of science that is very often ignored." (Phenotype June 2017)