Mystery of Market Movements

An Archetypal Approach to Investment Forecasting and Modelling

Inbunden, Engelska, 2014

969 kr

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A quantifiable framework for unlocking the unconscious forces that shape marketsThere has long been a notion that subliminal forces play a great part in causing the seemingly irrational financial bubbles, which conventional economic theory, again and again, fails to explain. However, these forces, sometimes labeled ‘animal spirits’ or ‘irrational exuberance, have remained elusive - until now. The Mystery of Market Movements provides you with a methodology to timely predict and profit from changes in human investment behaviour based on the workings of the collective unconscious.Niklas Hageback draws in on one of psychology's most influential ideas - archetypes - to explain how they form investor’s perceptions and can be predicted and turned into profit. The Mystery of Market Movements provides; A review of the collective unconscious and its archetypes based on Carl Jung’s theories and empirical case studies that highlights and assesses the influences of the collective unconscious on financial bubbles and zeitgeistsFor the first time being able to objectively measure the impact of archetypal forces on human thoughts and behaviour with a view to provide early warning signals on major turns in the markets. This is done through a step-by-step guide on how to develop a measurement methodology based on an analysis of the language of the unconscious; figurative speech such as metaphors and symbolism, drawn out and deciphered from Big Data sources, allowing for quantification into time seriesThe book is supplemented with an online resource that presents continuously updated bespoken archetypal indexes with predictive capabilities to major financial indexesInvestors are often unaware of the real reasons behind their own financial decisions. This book explains why psychological drivers in the collective unconscious dictates not only investment behaviour but also political, cultural and social trends. Understanding these forces allows you to stay ahead of the curve and profit from market tendencies that more traditional methods completely overlook.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2014-05-30
Mått159 x 241 x 15 mm
Vikt1 361 g
FormatInbunden
SpråkEngelska
SerieBloomberg
Antal sidor192
FörlagJohn Wiley & Sons Inc
ISBN9781118844984

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Finansiering inom Ekonomi och ledarskap

NIKLAS HAGEBACK has extensive experience in the financial sector working at tier-one financial institutions and consulting firms, such as Deutsche Bank, KPMG, and Goldman Sachs, holding regional risk management and oversight roles in both Europe and Asia. This included leading the implementation of operational risk and economic capital frameworks and also engaging in the public debate through a number of articles published, public presentations and regulatory lobbying.He currently resides in Hong Kong where he is running a money management firm as well as managing a portfolio of financial software start-up firms with a special focus on research and product development in the area of behavioural finance.

Acknowledgments ixIntroduction 1CHAPTER 1 Psychology: A Primer 7Some Key Psychological Concepts 9The Unconscious 13Conclusion 21Notes 22References 24CHAPTER 2 Archetypes and Symbols 27Carl Gustav Jung 27Archetypes: A Background 31Why Do Archetypes Activate? 40Symbols: The Tangible Manifestations of Archetypes 45Conclusion 50Notes 50References 52CHAPTER 3 How Archetypes Influence and Impact Behaviour 55Characteristics of the Activation of an Archetype 55Projections and Other Defense Mechanisms 56The Role of Scapegoats 58Shadow Projections 58Zeitgeist 59Mass Hysteria and Panics 62Conclusion 65Notes 65References 66CHAPTER 4 Archetypal Influences in the Financial Markets 67Financial Bubbles 67Animal Spirits 71An Archetypal Perspective on the Development of Financial Bubbles 74Conclusion 77Notes 77References 78CHAPTER 5 Existing Approaches to Capture Sentiments in Financial Markets, and Why They Do Not Work 81Behavioural Finance 82Technical Analysis 83Efficient Market Hypothesis 84Black Swans 86Social Mood 87Emotion Words 89Conclusion 89Notes 90References 91CHAPTER 6 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part I: Building Blocks 93Linking Symbols to Archetypes 96Capturing Symbols 98Conclusion 107Notes 108References 109CHAPTER 7 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part II: The Data 111Data Sources 112Capture and Cleansing 114Relativisation of Symbol Words 119Two Article Examples 120Conclusion 128Notes 128References 129CHAPTER 8 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part III: The Model 131Signal Theory 133Correlation Testing 136Testing the Time Series against Known Cycles 138Constructing Archetypal Composite Indexes 138Backtesting and Calibration 141Conclusion 142Notes 143References 143CHAPTER 9 Examples of Archetypal Influences on the Formation of Financial Bubbles 145The Dot-Com Bubble 148The US Property Bubble 155Conclusion 159Notes 160References 161CHAPTER 10 Conclusion 163How Archetypes Play Out 164Areas for Further Research 165Time Constants 166Multiple Archetypes 166Tipping Points 167Subliminal Stimulation 168Archetypal Influences in Other Areas 169Archetypal Influences in Other Cultures and Languages 170Are the Collective Unconscious and Its Archetypes Constraining Free Will? 171Influences on Finance 172About the Author 175Index 177