Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems

Inbunden, Engelska, 2017

AvShreedhar Maskey

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A hydroinformatics system represents an electronic knowledge encapsulator that models part of the real world and can be used for the simulation and analysis of physical, chemical and biological processes in water systems, in order to achieve a better management of the aquatic environment. Thus, modelling is at the heart of hydroinformatics. The theory of nonlinear dynamics and chaos, and the extent to which recent improvements in the understanding of inherently nonlinear natural processes present challenges to the use of mathematical models in the analysis of water and environmental systems, are elaborated in this work. In particular, it demonstrates that the deterministic chaos present in many nonlinear systems can impose fundamental limitations on our ability to predict behaviour, even when well-defined mathematical models exist. On the other hand, methodologies and tools from the theory of nonlinear dynamics and chaos can provide means for a better accuracy of short-term predictions as demonstrated through the practical applications in this work.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum2017-10-02
Mått156 x 234 x undefined mm
Vikt453 g
FormatInbunden
SpråkEngelska
Antal sidor192
FörlagTaylor & Francis Ltd
ISBN9781138475052

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Energiindustri inom Ekonomi och Ledarskap

Shreedhar Maskey was born on 24 December 1966 in Charikot, in the district Dolkha, Nepal. In 1990, he graduated in Civil Engineering from Tribhuvan University in Nepal. Since 1991 he served in the same university as a lecturer until he joined UNESCO-IHE (then IRE-Delft) in 1997 to participate in the Master's Programme in Hydroinformatics. He received the Master of Science degree with distinction in hydro informatics in April 1 999. Since April 1999 he has been at UNESCO-IRE as a PhD research fellow. During this period he also worked for the COWl project (Apr. 1999 - Dec. 1999) and the OS1RIS2 project (Jan. 2000 - Mar. 2003) and assisted in various ways in the Hydroinformatics Master's Programme.

Chapter 1: Introduction, Chapter 2: Flood Forecasting Models and Uncertainy Representation, Chapter 3: Existing Mathematical Methods for Uncertainty Assessment, Chapter 4: Contribution of Present Research to Uncertainty Assessment Methods, Chapter 5: Application: Flood Forecasting Model for Klodzko Catchment (Poland), Chapter 6: Application: Flood Forecasting Model for Loire River (France), Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations, Appendix I: Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Arithmetic and Defuzzification, Abbreviations, Notations, References, Samenvatting: Modellering Van Onzekerheid in Systemen Voor Hoogwatervoorspelling, Acknowledgements, About the Author

"This book is an excellent one. It is directed to the skeptic engineers who still refuse to embrace concept of uncertainty and continue to use deterministic approaches. This is due to the fact that books dealing with uncertainty seldom include any practical application. Therefore, many engineers assume that uncertainty modeling, be it of probabilistic, fuzzy, or convex nature, are reserved for research only. This book is a welcome harbinger which paves the way to systematic uncertainty analysis as an extremely practical problem…."Dr. Issac Elishakoff, J. M. Rubin Distinguished Professorin Safety, Reliability and Security, Florida Atlantic University writing in Shock and Vibration 13 (2006) 63 IOS Press

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