Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events

JOHN A. SOKOLOWSKI, PhD, is Research Professor and Director of Research at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center at Old Dominion University. He has written numerous journal articles on the use of modeling and simulation techniques in the fields of engineering, computer science, and human behavior representation. Dr. Sokolowski is the coeditor of Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach, also published by Wiley. CATHERINE M. BANKS, PhD, is Research Assistant Professor at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center at Old Dominion University. She currently focuses her research on modeling states and their varied histories of revolution and insurgency; political economy and state volatility; and climate change and population dynamics. Dr. Banks is the coeditor of Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach, also published by Wiley.

• Preface xiI PRINCIPLES OF MODELING AND SIMULATION: ADVANCING GLOBAL STUDIES 11 Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why 3Introduction 3An Overview of Modeling and Simulation 4A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation 8Why Use Modeling and Simulation 16Conclusions 20Key Terms 21References 21Further Reading 222 Research Methodologies for Modeling Global Events 23Introduction 23Global Events and the Social Sciences 25Qualitative and Quantitative Research 28Modeling and Simulation of Global Events 32Mapping Data: A Suggested Methodology 36Model Validation 39Conclusions 40Key Terms 41References 41II MODELING PARADIGMS 433 System Dynamics 45Introduction 45Dynamic System Behavior 46Building Blocks of System Dynamics Models 51Conclusions 61Key Terms 61References 614 Agent-Based Modeling and Social Networks 63Introduction 63Agent-Based Models: Description and Definition 64Social Networks 76Building an Agent-Based Model 77Conclusions 78Key Terms 78References 795 Game Theory 81Introduction 81Fundamentals of Game Theory 81Types of Games 86Conclusions 95Key Terms 95References 96III MODELING GLOBAL EVENTS 976 Case Study: Colombia—A Country Study of Insurgency 99Introduction 99Developing the Research Question and Methodology 101Background: Qualitative Research 102Mapping Qualitative to Quantitative 108System Dynamics 115Responding to the Research Question 117Key Terms 120References 120Case Study Bibliography 1207 Case Study: The Polish Solidarity Movement—Laying the Foundation for the Collapse of Soviet Communism 123Introduction 123Developing the Research Question and Methodology 125Background: Qualitative Research 126Measuring Agents and Environments: Stimuli and Actions 144Modeling Human Behavior with Agents 147Responding to the Research Question 150Conclusions 151Key Terms 152References 152Case Study Bibliography 1538 Case Study: Vietnam—Johnson's War, 1963–1965 155Introduction 155Developing the Research Questionand Methodology 157Background: Qualitative Research 158Analyzing the Social Network Structures 165Social Network Aspects of Human Behavior Modeling 169Agent-Based Model Development 169Responding to the Research Question 172Key Terms 173References 174Case Study Bibliography 1749 Case Study: Cuban Missile Crisis—A National Security Emergency 177Introduction 177Developing the Research Question and Methodology 179Background: Qualitative Research 180Evaluating Behaviors 188Game Theory 192Responding to the Research Question 197Key Terms 199References 199Case Study Bibliography 200Index 203

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