Markets Never Forget (But People Do)

KEN FISHER is best known for his prestigious “Portfolio Strategy” column in Forbes magazine, where his over 27-year tenure of high-profile calls makes him the fourth longest-running columnist in Forbes’s 90-plus year history. He is the founder, Chairman and CEO of Fisher Investments, an independent global money management firm managing tens of billions for individuals and institutions globally. Fisher is ranked #252 on the 2010 Forbes 400 list of richest Americans, and #736 on the 2011 Forbes global billionaires list. In 2010, Investment Advisor magazine named him among the 30 most influential individuals of the last three decades. Fisher has authored numerous professional and scholarly articles, including the award-winning “Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasting.” He has also published seven previous books, including New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestsellers, The Only Three Questions That Count, The Ten Roads to Riches, How to Smell a Rat and Debunkery, all published by Wiley. Fisher has been published, interviewed and/or written about in many major American, British and German finance or business periodicals. He has a weekly column in Focus Money, Germany’s leading weekly finance and business magazine. LARA HOFFMANS is a content manager at Fisher Investments, managing editor of MarketMinder.com, a regular contributor to Forbes.com and co-author of the bestsellers, The Only Three Questions That Count, The Ten Roads to Riches, How to Smell a Rat and Debunkery.

• Preface ixAcknowledgments xviiChapter 1 The Plain-Old Normal 1Yes Sir, Sir John 1The Normal Normal 5The Jobless Recovery 14The Always Feared, Rarely Seen Double Dip 23Chapter 2 Fooled by Averages 31Bull Markets Are Inherently Above Average 32Viva the V 36Normal Returns Are Extreme, Not Average 47The Pause That Refreshes (and Confuses) 49Getting Average Returns Is Hard—Really Hard 53Chapter 3 Volatility Is Normal—and Volatile 57What the Heck Is Volatility? 58Volatility Is Volatile 61The Daily Grind 65Stocks Are Less Volatile Than Bonds? 67Economic Volatility—Also Normal 69Volatility Isn’t Inherently Bad 71Never a Dull Moment 74Chapter 4 Secular Bear? (Secular) Bull! 81Seeing the World Through Bear- Colored Glasses 82Two Secular Bear Markets? 84Stocks—Up Vastly More Than Down 90Chapter 5 Debt and Deficient Thinking 101Deficits Aren’t Bad, but Surpluses Will Kill You 105The History of Big Government Debt 110Just Who Is at Default Here? 116Chapter 6 Long- Term Love and Other Investing Errors 123No One Category Is Best for All Time 124Long- Term Love Is Like Long- Term Forecasting— Both Wrong 129It’s Still Heat Chasing Even When It Seems Safe 134Use History to Your Advantage 146Chapter 7 Poli-Ticking 151Enter the Ideology- Free Zone 152Your Party Isn’t Better 153Presidents and Risk Aversion 155Perverse Inverse—It’s Four and One 160Poli- Tics Go Global 170Poli- Tics Versus Entrepreneurs 172Chapter 8 It’s (Always Been) a Global World, After All 177It’s Always Been a Small World 179Seeing the World Right 186Conclusion 194Appendix 197Notes 201Index 211