Low Fertility and Population Development in China

Quanbao Jiang is a professor of Demography at the Institute for Population and Development Studies, Xi’an Jiaotong University, China. His research interests include demographic analysis and public policy, low fertility, gender imbalance. His English book—Gender Imbalance and Marriage Squeeze—will soon be published with Routledge.Shucai Yang is an assistant professor of Demography at School of Political Science and Law, University of Jinan, China. Her research interests include low fertility and demographic analysis.

• Introduction.- Controversies Over Fertility Levels.- Indirect Estimation of Fertility Levels.- Analysis of Fertility Levels with Multiple Indicators.- Regional Differences in Fertility Indicators.- Modeling and Projection of the Fertility Pattern of First Births.- Fertility Rate and Age-Specific Patterns: Model Fitting and Confidence Intervals.- Parity-Sex Composition and Next Childbirth.- Fertility Intention, Son preference and Second Childbirth.- Sex-selective Abortions over the Four Decades.- Decomposition of Changes in Fertility Levels.- Decomposition of Changes in the Number of Births.- Projection of Fertility.- Fertility Level and Population Development.- “4-2-1” Family Structure.- Shidu Family.