Libya's Fragmentation

Wolfram Lacher is Senior Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). His research focuses on conflict dynamics in Libya and the Sahel region, and relies on frequent fieldwork. Lacher has published in many journals and media outlets, including Survival, Mediterranean Politics, Foreign Affairs and The Washington Post. He received his PhD in Political Science from Humboldt University in Berlin, Germany.

• INTRODUCTIONThe PuzzleFragmentation in Civil Wars and Collapsed States.Fragmentation and Social Structure.The ArgumentStructure, Process, and Social Transformation in Civil WarSocial EmbeddednessThe Process of FragmentationMechanisms and ProcessesResearch Design and MethodologyData collectionConditions and ConstraintsPlan of the BookLIBYA’S UNRAVELLING, 2011-2019Revolution (February-October 2011)Sharing the Spoils (November 2011 – July 2012)An Experiment with Democracy (July 2012 – May 2013)Escalating Tensions (May 2013 – June 2014)The Second Civil War (2014-15)The Elusive Agreement (July 2015 – September 2016)Impasse (September 2016 – January 2019)Haftar's Expansion and the Third Civil War (January 2019)Patterns, Turning Points, and Paths not TakenSTRUCTURE AND PROCESS IN THE ERUPTION OF CIVIL WAR (2011)Structure, Process, and ViolenceCollective Indecision, Contingency, and ViolenceViolence, Group Structure, and Social TransformationStructural Aspects of Libyan LocalismA Century of Turmoil, 1911-2011What Is A Libyan Tribe?The Myth of the Marginalized Cities and RegionsThe Irruption of Localism in 2011A Local Civil War in the Western/Nafusa MountainsMisrata: Rise of a Revolutionary BulwarkBani Walid: Loyalism and VictimizationTobruk: Revolution at the MarginsConclusion: Violence and the Formation of New Political CommunitiesSOCIAL EMBEDDEDNESS AND VIOLENT CONFLICT (2012-15)Resocializing Armed GroupsSocial Embeddedness versus FormalizationSocial Embeddedness and Transformation in Libya’s ConflictsMisrata: Power Politics and Social EmbeddednessWestern/Nafusa Mountains: Militia Conglomerates and Community SecurityBani Walid: The Difficult Path to Local Cohesion.Tobruk: The BackwaterElsewhere: The Reign of MilitiasConclusionTHE PROCESS OF FRAGMENTATION (2015-2019)Is Fragmentation a Game?Changes in Strategic Conditions, 2011-2019Trajectories of FragmentationMisrata: Social Cohesion, Political FragmentationWestern/Nafusa Mountains: Zintan, from Corporatism to FragmentationBani Walid: Restoring Cohesion through Self-IsolationTobruk: The Rise of HaftarConclusionCONCLUSIONHow Civil Wars Erupt: Onset vs. EscalationProcesses in Violent Conflict: Social Transformation and Strategic ConditionsFragmentation and CohesionWhat Explains Deep Social Embeddedness, and What Are Its Implications?From Fragmentation to ConsolidationThe Libyan PredicamentAnnex: List of InterviewsPublication bibliographyIndex

Wolfram Lacher has made a remarkable contribution to the literature on civil conflict and the Libyan civil war by putting forward the transformative effects of violent conflicts on communities. His work is crucial for political scientists and policymakers seeking to understand how the political and military landscape in Libya has fragmented and why the actors are still in dispute with each other.