Judgment and Decision Making

Baruch Fischhoff is Howard Heinz University Professor, Carnegie Mellon University, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Department of Engineering and Public Policy.

• 1. Judgment and Decision Making 2. Amos Tversky 3. Hindsight Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty 4. For those Condemned to Study the Past: Reflections on Historical Judgment 5. The Early History of Hindsight Research 6. Hypothesis Evaluation from a Bayesian Perspective 7. Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence 8. Fault Trees: Sensitivity of Assessed Failure Probabilities to Problem Representation 9. Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants 10. Fifty/Fifty = 50? 11. Predicting Frames 12. Value Elicitation: Is there Anything in there? 13. Informed Consent in Eliciting Environmental Values 14. Giving Advice: Decision Theory Perspectives on Sexual Assault 15. The Real World: What Good is it? 16. Assessing Adolescent Decision-making Competence 17. Questions of Competence: The Duty to Inform and the Limits to Choice 18. From Behavioral Decision Theory to Behavioral Decision Research