Anthony H. Cordesman is currently a senior fellow and codirector of the Middle East Program, and director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, a military analyst for ABC News and adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University. He has served in senior positions in the office of the secretary of defence, NATO, and the U.S. Senate. Abraham R. Wagner is an independent defence consultant in the area of national security problems working with Science Applications International, Inc., as well as several federal agencies. He has written extensively on Third World military technologies and appeared on ABC News, the BBC, National Public Radio, and CBN to provide expert analysis of the Persian Gulf War. Anthony H. Cordesman has served in senior positions in the office for the secretary of defence, NATO, and the U.S. Senate. He is currently a senior fellow and codirector of the Middle East Program at the centre for Strategic and International Studies, an adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University, and a special consultant on military affairs for ABC News. He lives in Washington, D.C. Ahmed S. Hashim is a fellow in Political-Military Affairs and the Middle East Program at the centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., where he specializes on strategic issues. Previously, he was a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He lives in Virginia.

• Introduction -- Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War -- The Informal Politics of the “Center” -- The Formal Politics of Iraq’s Instruments of State Power -- The “Periphery”: Opposition Movements and Ethnic and Sectarian Issues -- The “Periphery”: Political Alienation and Abuses of Human Rights -- Sanctions and Economic Instability -- Oil and Iraqi Export Capabilities -- External Relations -- Military Developments -- The Threat from Iraqi Land Forces -- The Threat from Iraqi Air and Air Defense Forces -- The Threat from Iraqi Naval Forces -- Unconventional Warfare and Terrorism -- The Threat from Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction -- The Problem of Policy: Beyond Sanctions and “Dual Containment” -- Sources and Methods