Anthony H. Cordesman is currently a senior fellow and codirector of the Middle East Program, and director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, a military analyst for ABC News and adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University. He has served in senior positions in the office of the secretary of defense, NATO, and the U.S. Senate. Ahmed S. Hashim.

• 1 Introduction, 2 Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War, 3 The Informal Politics of the "Center", 4 The Formal Politics of Iraq's Instruments of State Power, 5 The "Periphery": Opposition Movements and Ethnic and Sectarian Issues, 6 The "Periphery": Political Alienation and Abuses of Human Rights, 7 Sanctions and Economic Instability, 8 Oil and Iraqi Export Capabilities, 9 External Relations, 10 Military Developments, 11 The Threat from Iraqi Land Forces, 12 The Threat from Iraqi Air and Air Defense Forces, 13 The Threat from Iraqi Naval Forces, 14 Unconventional Warfare and Terrorism, 15 The Threat from Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction, 16 The Problem of Policy: Beyond Sanctions and "Dual Containment"

Anthony H. Cordesman is currently a senior fellow and codirector of the Middle East Program, and director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, a military analyst for ABC News and adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University. He has served in senior positions in the office of the secretary of defense, NATO, and the U.S. Senate. Ahmed S. Hashim.

• 1 Introduction, 2 Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War, 3 The Informal Politics of the "Center", 4 The Formal Politics of Iraq's Instruments of State Power, 5 The "Periphery": Opposition Movements and Ethnic and Sectarian Issues, 6 The "Periphery": Political Alienation and Abuses of Human Rights, 7 Sanctions and Economic Instability, 8 Oil and Iraqi Export Capabilities, 9 External Relations, 10 Military Developments, 11 The Threat from Iraqi Land Forces, 12 The Threat from Iraqi Air and Air Defense Forces, 13 The Threat from Iraqi Naval Forces, 14 Unconventional Warfare and Terrorism, 15 The Threat from Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction, 16 The Problem of Policy: Beyond Sanctions and "Dual Containment"

Anthony H. Cordesman is currently a senior fellow and codirector of the Middle East Program, and director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, a military analyst for ABC News and adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University. He has served in senior positions in the office of the secretary of defense, NATO, and the U.S. Senate. Ahmed S. Hashim.

• 1 Introduction, 2 Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War, 3 The Informal Politics of the "Center", 4 The Formal Politics of Iraq's Instruments of State Power, 5 The "Periphery": Opposition Movements and Ethnic and Sectarian Issues, 6 The "Periphery": Political Alienation and Abuses of Human Rights, 7 Sanctions and Economic Instability, 8 Oil and Iraqi Export Capabilities, 9 External Relations, 10 Military Developments, 11 The Threat from Iraqi Land Forces, 12 The Threat from Iraqi Air and Air Defense Forces, 13 The Threat from Iraqi Naval Forces, 14 Unconventional Warfare and Terrorism, 15 The Threat from Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction, 16 The Problem of Policy: Beyond Sanctions and "Dual Containment"