Interpreting Historical Sequences Using Economic Models

Paul Hallwood is Professor of Economics at the University of Connecticut, USA. He has co-authored two books and several papers on Scottish independence.

• 1. Introduction.- 2. The Economic Model.- 3. Intra-State Sequencing with Historical Examples.- 4. Drivers of Historical Sequences.- 5. International Sequencing with Historical Examples.- 6. Peacekeeping and Sequencing.- 7. Case Study: Secessionist Motives in the American Civil War.- 8. Minimizing the Cost of Union: Fiscal Autonomy and the Case of Scotland.- 9. Conclusions.