Integrated Inferences

Macartan Humphreys is Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and Director of the Institutions and Political Inequality group at the WZB Berlin, conducting research on post-conflict development, ethnic politics, and democratic decision-making. He has been President of the APSA Experimental Political Science section and Executive Director of the Evidence on Governance and Politics network. Alan M. Jacobs is Professor of Political Science at the University of British Columbia, conducting research on comparative political economy in democratic settings. He has been President of the APSA's Qualitative and Multi-Method Research section, winner of the section's Mid-Career Achievement Award, and a regular instructor at the Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research.

• 1. Introduction; I. Foundations: 2. Causal models; 3. Illustrating causal models; 4. Causal queries; 5. Bayesian answers; 6. Theories as causal models; II. Model-based causal inference: 7. Process tracing with causal models; 8. Process tracing applications; 9. Integrated inferences; 10. Integrated inferences applications; 11. Mixing models; III. Design choices: 12. Clue selection as a decision problem; 13. Case selection; 14. Going wide, going deep; IV. Models in question: 15. Justifying models; 16. Evaluating models; 17. Final words; V. Appendices: 18. Causal Queries; 19. Glossary; Bibliography; Index.

'An ambitious attempt to leverage the strengths of qualitative and quantitative social scientific approaches by embedding them within a Bayesian framework, this book will give economists, political scientists, and other researchers a lot to chew on for years to come.' Andrew Gelman, Columbia University